The principles of science : $b a treatise on logic and scientific methodJevons, William Stanley
Philosophy
The principles of science : $b a treatise on logic and scientific method
Jevons, William Stanley
Logic; Science -- Methodology
I gave in p. 181 a calculation of the number of ways in which eight
planets can meet in conjunction; the reader will find all the numbers
detailed in the ninth line of the arithmetical triangle. The sum of the
whole line is 2^{8} or 256; but we must subtract a unit for the case
where no planet appears, and 8 for the 8 cases in which only one planet
appears; so that the total number of conjunctions is 2^{8} -1 - 8
or 247. If an organ has eleven stops we find in the twelfth line the
numbers of ways in which we can draw them, 1, 2, 3, or more at a time.
Thus there are 462 ways of drawing five stops at once, and as many of
drawing six stops. The total number of ways of varying the sound is
2048, including the single case in which no stop at all is drawn.
One of the most important scientific uses of the arithmetical triangle
consists in the information which it gives concerning the comparative
frequency of divergencies from an average. Suppose, for the sake of
argument, that all persons were naturally of the equal stature of five
feet, but enjoyed during youth seven independent chances of growing one
inch in addition. Of these seven chances, one, two, three, or more,
may happen favourably to any individual; but, as it does not matter
what the chances are, so that the inch is gained, the question really
turns upon the number of combinations of 0, 1, 2, 3, &c., things out of
seven. Hence the eighth line of the triangle gives us a complete answer
to the question, as follows:--
Out of every 128 people--
Feet Inches.
One person would have the stature of 5 0
7 persons " " 5 1
21 persons " " 5 2
35 persons " " 5 3
35 persons " " 5 4
21 persons " " 5 5
7 persons " " 5 6
1 person " " 5 7
By taking a proper line of the triangle, an answer may be had under
any more natural supposition. This theory of comparative frequency of
divergence from an average, was first adequately noticed by Quetelet,
and has lately been employed in a very interesting and bold manner by
Mr. Francis Galton,[104] in his remarkable work on “Hereditary Genius.”
We shall afterwards find that the theory of error, to which is made the
ultimate appeal in cases of quantitative investigation, is founded upon
the comparative numbers of combinations as displayed in the triangle.
[104] See also Galton’s Lecture at the Royal Institution, 27th
February, 1874; Catalogue of the Special Loan Collection of
Scientific Instruments, South Kensington, Nos. 48, 49; and Galton,
*Philosophical Magazine*, January 1875.
*Connection between the Arithmetical Triangle and the Logical Alphabet.*
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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