The principles of science : $b a treatise on logic and scientific methodJevons, William Stanley
Philosophy
The principles of science : $b a treatise on logic and scientific method
Jevons, William Stanley
Logic; Science -- Methodology
the terms being continued until they cease to have any value. Thus we
arrive at a proof of simple cases of the Binomial Theorem, of which
each column of the Logical Alphabet is an exemplification. It may be
shown that all other mathematical expansions likewise arise out of
simple processes of combination, but the more complete consideration of
this subject must be deferred to another work.
*Possible Variety of Nature and Art.*
We cannot adequately understand the difficulties which beset us in
certain branches of science, unless we have some clear idea of the vast
numbers of combinations or permutations which may be possible under
certain conditions. Thus only can we learn how hopeless it would be
to attempt to treat nature in detail, and exhaust the whole number of
events which might arise. It is instructive to consider, in the first
place, how immensely great are the numbers of combinations with which
we deal in many arts and amusements.
In dealing a pack of cards, the number of hands, of thirteen cards
each, which can be produced is evidently 52 × 51 × 50 × ... × 40
divided by 1 × 2 × 3 ... × 13. or 635,013,559,600. But in whist
four hands are simultaneously held, and the number of distinct
deals becomes so vast that it would require twenty-eight figures to
express it. If the whole population of the world, say one thousand
millions of persons, were to deal cards day and night, for a hundred
million of years, they would not in that time have exhausted one
hundred-thousandth part of the possible deals. Even with the same hands
of cards the play may be almost infinitely varied, so that the complete
variety of games at whist which may exist is almost incalculably great.
It is in the highest degree improbable that any one game of whist was
ever exactly like another, except it were intentionally so.
The end of novelty in art might well be dreaded, did we not find that
nature at least has placed no attainable limit, and that the deficiency
will lie in our inventive faculties. It would be a cheerless time
indeed when all possible varieties of melody were exhausted, but it
is readily shown that if a peal of twenty-four bells had been rung
continuously from the so-called beginning of the world to the present
day, no approach could have been made to the completion of the possible
changes. Nay, had every single minute been prolonged to 10,000 years,
still the task would have been unaccomplished.[105] As regards ordinary
melodies, the eight notes of a single octave give more than 40,000
permutations, and two octaves more than a million millions. If we were
to take into account the semitones, it would become apparent that it
is impossible to exhaust the variety of music. When the late Mr. J. S.
Mill, in a depressed state of mind, feared the approaching exhaustion
of musical melodies, he had certainly not bestowed sufficient study on
the subject of permutations.
[105] Wallis, *Of Combinations*, p. 116, quoting Vossius.
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