4. Fallacious Use of the Term Cause 221 5. Confusion of Two Questions 222 6. Definition of the Term Cause 224 7. Distinction of Inductive and Deductive Results 226 8. The Grounds of Inductive Inference 228 9. Illustrations of the Inductive Process 229 10. Geometrical Reasoning 233 11. Discrimination of Certainty and Probability 235 CHAPTER XII. THE INDUCTIVE OR INVERSE APPLICATION OF THE THEORY OF PROBABILITY. 1. The Inductive or Inverse Application of the Theory 240 2. Principle of the Inverse Method 242 3. Simple Applications of the Inverse Method 244 4. The Theory of Probability in Astronomy 247 5. The General Inverse Problem 250 6. Simple Illustration of the Inverse Problem 253 7. General Solution of the Inverse Problem 255 8. Rules of the Inverse Method 257 9. Fortuitous Coincidences 261 10. Summary of the Theory of Inductive Inference 265 BOOK III. METHODS OF MEASUREMENT. CHAPTER XIII. THE EXACT MEASUREMENT OF PHENOMENA. 1. The Exact Measurement of Phenomena 270 2. Division of the Subject 274 3. Continuous quantity 274 4. The Fallacious Indications of the Senses 276 5. Complexity of Quantitative Questions 278 6. The Methods of Accurate Measurement 282 7. Conditions of Accurate Measurement 282 8. Measuring Instruments 284 9. The Method of Repetition 288 10. Measurements by Natural Coincidence 292 11. Modes of Indirect Measurement 296 12. Comparative Use of Measuring Instruments 299 13. Systematic Performance of Measurements 300 14. The Pendulum 302 15. Attainable Accuracy of Measurement 303 CHAPTER XIV. UNITS AND STANDARDS OF MEASUREMENT. 1. Units and Standards of Measurement 305 2. Standard Unit of Time 307 3. The Unit of Space and the Bar Standard 312 4. The Terrestrial Standard 314 5. The Pendulum Standard 315 6. Unit of Density 316