China -- Civilization; China -- Foreign relations; China -- Politics and government
The taking of a census by the methods adopted in Western nations
has never yet been attempted in China, and consequently estimates
of the total population have varied to an extraordinary degree.
The nearest approach to a reliable estimate is, probably, the
census taken by the Minchengpu (Ministry of Interior) in 1910,
the results of which are embodied in a report submitted to the
Department of State at Washington by Mr. Raymond P. Tenney, a
Student Interpreter at the U.S. Legation, Peking.... It is
pointed out that even this census can only be regarded as
approximate, as, with few exceptions, households and not
individuals were counted.
The estimated population of the Chinese Empire (exclusive of Tibet) is
given, on the basis of this census, as 329,542,000, while the population
of Tibet is estimated at 1,500,000. Estimates which have been made at
various other dates are given as follows (p. 2):
A.D. A.D.
1381 59,850,000 / 143,125,225
1412 66,377,000 1760--203,916,477
1580 60,692,000 1761 205,293,053
1662 21,068,000 1762 198,214,553
1668 25,386,209 1790 155,249,897
/ 23,312,200 / 307,467,200
1710 --27,241,129 1792- 333,000,000
1711 28,241,129 / 362,467,183
1736 125,046,245 1812--360,440,000
/ 157,343,975 1842 413,021,000
1743 149,332,730 1868 404,946,514
\ 150,265,475 1881 380,000,000
1753 103,050,600 1882 381,309,000
1885 377,636,000
These figures suffice to show how little is known about the population
of China. Not only are widely divergent estimates made in the same year
(_e.g._ 1760), but in other respects the figures are incredible. Mr.
Putnam Weale might contend that the drop from 60 millions in 1580 to 21
millions in 1662 was due to the wars leading to the Manchu conquest. But
no one can believe that between 1711 and 1736 the population increased
from 28 millions to 125 millions, or that it doubled between 1790 and
1792. No one knows whether the population of China is increasing or
diminishing, whether people in general have large or small families, or
any of the other facts that vital statistics are designed to elucidate.
What is said on these subjects, however dogmatic, is no more than
guess-work. Even the population of Peking is unknown. It is said to be
about 900,000, but it may be anywhere between 800,000 and a million. As
for the population of the Chinese Empire, it is probably safe to assume
that it is between three and four hundred millions, and somewhat likely
that it is below three hundred and fifty millions. Very little indeed
can be said with confidence as to the population of China in former
times; so little that, on the whole, authors who give statistics are to
be distrusted.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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