The psychology of speculation : $b The human element in stock market transactionsHarper, Henry Howard
Science
The psychology of speculation : $b The human element in stock market transactions
Harper, Henry Howard
Speculation; Stock exchanges
Nor should it be imagined that the stock market is primarily a guessing
game, or a game of chance; or even an unbeatable game; or that it is
run by a gang of swindlers or mountebanks. Gamesters and swindlers
may play at it, but the game itself is as straight and legitimate as
any business pursuit. As a matter of fact it is one of the fairest and
most open games ever played; a game in which every participant, man
or woman, rich or poor, old or young, has an equal chance. The fact
that most people resort to mere guessing and gambling in their stock
transactions does not make it necessary to qualify this statement;
neither is the truth of the assertion altered by the fact that certain
individuals and organized cliques of traders manipulate stocks, both
up and down, with utter disregard of basic values, and in this way set
cleverly baited traps for other traders who imagine themselves wise
enough to pluck the bait and get away without springing the trap. A
trader or investor in stocks is not obliged to participate in these
machinations, any more than one who goes to a circus is obliged to
bet on the shell games and other tricky money-making devices that are
sometimes run in conjunction with traveling menageries, but are no part
of the main performance.
[Illustration]
A person who buys a piece of improved real estate for less than half
of its actual worth is reasonably sure he has a bargain; but if he
afterwards sells it at a fair price, and later buys it back again at a
much higher figure, he is gambling that for some reason or other it is
going to be worth more, either actually or fictitiously. Nor is it ever
unsafe to buy good stocks at figures away below their intrinsic worth.
The element of gambling does not enter the undertaking until the market
price has risen above the investment value; then if the owner refuses
to sell, or buys more (as the speculator usually does) he is gambling
on the uncertain event that some individual or clique is going to pay
him more than the stock is worth. When one buys a stock, either for
investment or speculation, its value cannot be permanently affected by
the action of other traders, and no individual or group of individuals
can euchre an investor out of his stock except by his own free will.
The man with a hundred dollars has the same relative chance for making
money as the man with a million; but the difficulty is that the one
with the smaller amount is ambitious to make equally as much as the one
with the million; therefore he resorts to gambling on thin margins; and
not being content with ordinary risks he plays a long chance shot. If
he wins, instead of withdrawing the original capital, with perhaps a
little more, he usually stakes the whole amount on every venture until
it is lost.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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