The psychology of speculation : $b The human element in stock market transactionsHarper, Henry Howard
Science
The psychology of speculation : $b The human element in stock market transactions
Harper, Henry Howard
Speculation; Stock exchanges
It has been wisely observed by one who is more famous for the wisdom of
his writings than for the amount of money he has made in speculation,
that when a market reaches the top there is no visible sign to indicate
it; that on the contrary, at this critical point, everything seems to
indicate much higher prices. Also the majority of traders, tipsters,
financial editors, and even the brokers themselves, are apt to be most
bearishly disposed when the market is at its lowest point. This same
authority declares that when the “cats and dogs,” that is, the poorest
and most neglected stocks in the list, begin to advance it is time
for holders of securities to cash in their profits. It might be further
observed that when plums get ripe and the melon season is on, it is a
sure indication that summer is well advanced; likewise when, after a
long season of bullish anticipation, the stock market “plums” are being
distributed, and the “melon-cutting” process is in full swing--when the
favorite “mystery” stocks have disgorged their “hidden assets,” and
begin to sell ex-rights, ex-dividend, ex-merger and ex-mystery, it is a
pretty sure sign that the “bulls” are running short of provender, and
that the “bears” are about due for their inning. A man who accumulates
large paper profits in speculation and fails to “cash in” until a large
part, or all, of his gains have been dissipated in the process of
deflation which inevitably follows every boom, is comparable to one who
plants a field of grain and refuses to harvest it at maturity, hoping
that the ripened kernels will get a little larger. Many a speculator
has been brought to grief by an insatiate greed for that coveted
topmost point, instead of being content to sell at a good profit and
leave the possibility of a small gain to the individual who buys his
stock.
[Illustration: _Chorus of the bears_:--
When the plums are gone and the bulls go hence,
We’ll sharpen our claws and jump the fence.
]
NONE ARE SO BLIND AS THOSE WHO REFUSE TO SEE--NONE SO FOOLISH AS THOSE
WHO SCOFF AT WISE COUNSEL
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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