The Theory of Stock Exchange SpeculationCrump, Arthur
General
The Theory of Stock Exchange Speculation
Crump, Arthur
Speculation
Outside of this class, I found generally, when I asked one of the
prominent speculators for his opinion of the market, that he gave
me his true and candid opinion of the future of the market; and the
probabilities are that, if even not acting on this opinion at that very
moment, his general policy was based on such a forecast of the market’s
condition.
The strength of the successful speculator lies in his observing the
important principle set forth by Mr. Crump on page 60 of his work.
“Speculators never set sufficient value on the importance of avoiding a
loss—they think only of the profits.” As it is with our money affairs
when we say, “_Look after the pence; the pounds will take care of
themselves_,” so it is with speculation. Look after the losses; the
profits will take care of themselves. Never refuse a profit, is a golden
motto for speculators, which unhappily few of them, in their greediness,
have the courage to adopt. The observance of this rule is the main cause
of the success of the best speculators, and the non-observance is the
cause of failure of even their confidential friends.
Very few fortunes have been made in Wall Street at one stroke. Fortunes
which were made in that way were generally lost again in a very short
time. Most of the long, lasting, and solid fortunes were made by a
gradual accumulation of profits extending over a great many years. The
beginnings of these were sometimes quite small, and, as the capital
increased, larger operations were entered into.[1]
Another cause of failure is the habit of taking larger risks than the
means of speculators warrant. They naturally become nervous when they
begin to see their capital dwindle away, and then begin, what is called
in Wall Street, to “chip out.” Now this is the curse of the speculator,
not so much on account of the loss, as on account of the demoralization
it will lead him into. Of course, big losses ought to be avoided, but
at the same time well based and matured operations may sometimes be
temporarily upset by a temporary manipulation of the market, or by some
accidents which however right themselves in a few days, and cannot
seriously interrupt the natural course of the market. In such a market a
nervous speculator may “chip out” a fortune, and still be right in his
views as to general conditions.
I think it is better to make one loss of 5 per cent. or so, when you
know you are wrong, than to make three or five losses of 1 per cent.
each, when you do not know whether you are wrong or right, and in this
connection Mr. Crump has very much undervalued the importance of options.
Options, if considered in their proper light, are the most important
adjunct to speculation. They will enable the speculator to bridge over
many difficulties, and furnish capital to speculators who know how to use
them.
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