The Theory of Stock Exchange SpeculationCrump, Arthur
General
The Theory of Stock Exchange Speculation
Crump, Arthur
Speculation
“Clique,” “pool,” or “ring” are less expressive, and in consequence of
other associations, are less happy terms than our equivalent syndicate,
which in English financial circles can be mistaken for nothing else
than a combination of speculative capitalists which is formed either to
divide a loan amongst them and unload their portions upon the public as
opportunities may occur, or to “wash” a stock up and down, getting what
they can out of the unwary public during the operation. Gold “rings” on
the other side of the Atlantic, and foreign loan syndicates on this,
must by this time almost have had their day. Each new era of prosperity
requires and generally witnesses a new set of ingenious devices to throw
dust in the eyes of investors, while the new race of Autolycuses are
going through all the old tricks.
In London, settlements take place twice a month, but in Broad Street
sales are made for either cash or “regular.” In the first case purchases
have to be settled the same day before 2.15 P.M., and in the second on
the following day. Time contracts correspond to our time bargains, and
have about the same conditions attaching to them, with the exception that
the rate of interest charged, answering to our contango, is generally
6 per cent., unless otherwise stipulated, and is not influenced by a
varying standard such as our Bank rate.
The word “shrinkage” for depreciation is a neat term with which the small
catalogue may be euphoniously terminated.
CHAPTER II.
THE IMPORTANCE OF SPECIAL KNOWLEDGE REGARDING THE REGULARLY RECURRING
CAUSES THAT INFLUENCE THE MARKETS.
[Sidenote: THE TEMPER OF THE PUBLIC.]
If a speculator has not closely studied the special causes that influence
the Stock markets at regularly recurring intervals, he has not learned
the alphabet of his business. We shall endeavour to pass in review some
of these. First of all, there is the temper of the public. Many persons
have puzzled over the causes which will at one time combine to produce
activity among buyers of stocks, and at another dead stagnation; and
it is a very interesting study, albeit somewhat difficult of correct
analysis.
[Sidenote: METEOROLOGICAL INFLUENCES.]
There are periods of the year when the temper of investors tends to
sulkiness, in sympathy with a fall of the mercury. Dull and disagreeable
weather, as a rule, adversely affects the Stock markets more or less,
according to the extent of counteracting influences. If we take the
beginning of a year, in January investors will usually be found in a
conservative frame of mind, with which speculators will sympathise as
they perceive it; for it may safely be said that unless the public can
be calculated upon to follow their lead, it is useless for professional
speculators to stir up the markets. In the first month of the year
capitalists are in more or less of a stay-at-home mood; and now so
many buyers of securities live on a line of railway, they take as many
holidays as they can well find excuse for.[20]
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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