The Theory of Stock Exchange Speculation — John Shaqi
The Theory of Stock Exchange SpeculationCrump, Arthur
General
The Theory of Stock Exchange Speculation
Crump, Arthur
Speculation
as the half-year wears on, there are the dividends to look forward to,
which is always an inducement to buyers; the great cities are filling
with pleasure seekers, the import and export trade with foreign climes is
in full activity after the liberation of whole fleets of vessels which
have lain frozen up in northern parts during the winter. The young corn
is beginning to clothe the naked furrow, and the various fruits of the
earth are appearing, which only to read and hear of is to fill the eye
with a sense of plenty that half converts a Tory Stock Exchange operator
into an ultra-radical speculator. Under fairly favourable circumstances,
the course of general business during the first half of the year is more
active than during the second six months. The Parliamentary session is
in full swing, and large numbers of people congregate in the capital
towns of all European states to transact business, no small part of
which is the investment of their surplus profits in public securities.
When a new year is fairly on its legs, say in March, if war or such like
causes do not interfere with the natural course of events, between that
month and the end of June, a speculator for the rise should find, on an
average, his greatest opportunities. In the London market more especially
is it so, on account of the effect produced on the money market by the
collection of the revenue, which always keeps the Bank of England’s
reserve at a comparatively higher figure during the period named, a
circumstance of considerable importance. In the first half of the year
also there is more floating capital spread out, and more disposition
to extend credit to catch the profits that are to be gathered when the
nations of the earth are enticed into activity and movement, both for
business and pleasure, by genial weather and long days.
[Sidenote: CAUSES AFFECTING THE VALUE OF ENGLISH RAILWAY STOCKS.]
As regards some stocks, there will be no need to make a special study of
causes which affect the dividend; but this is not the case with railway
stocks. A speculator in railway stocks must watch the course of trade,
the colonial produce, the Manchester and Liverpool markets, and note
the character of the business doing in the great staples of Industry.
Upon the profitable nature of these trades depend very much the traffic
receipts of railways. A speculator devoting his attention especially
to railway stocks will, of course, analyze the reports of the various
companies, carefully noting the weekly published traffic receipts. Then,
again, there are the northern iron and coal districts, the operations in
which affect the price of railway stocks in two ways which are obvious.
A speculator who operates solely in railway stocks should be posted from
hour to hour in such matters, or he will be assuredly “hung up,” as the
saying is, with stock on which he has made a loss.
[Sidenote: THE COURSE TO PURSUE AT THE TURN OF THE HALF-YEAR.]
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