The Theory of Stock Exchange SpeculationCrump, Arthur
General
The Theory of Stock Exchange Speculation
Crump, Arthur
Speculation
As we spoke of the Bank of England becoming temporarily rich, by the
accumulation of revenue early in the year, so it becomes, as a rule,
poor in the autumn. People are getting more used to this ebb and flow in
Threadneedle Street, and the trouble it caused when Mr. Lowe first begun
experimenting is not now experienced to the same extent; but still it is
one of the elements which is disadvantageous, and to be kept in view by
the speculator as a regularly recurring adverse influence.
It is, of course, of the last importance to keep a watch over the foreign
exchanges, as these are affected more or less at certain periods when
the imports and exports of special kinds of produce and manufactures are
active.
Other influences which occur with machine-like regularity will be
referred to as occasion may require, and we now proceed to go more into
detail.
[Sidenote: ACTIVITY AMONG BUYERS.]
[Sidenote: THE BULL SPECULATOR’S GREAT CHANCE.]
[Sidenote: THE GREAT IMPORTANCE OF BEING NOW AND AGAIN ALTOGETHER CLEAR
OF THE MARKETS.]
[Sidenote: THE MOVEMENT OF PRICES NEAR THE SETTLEMENTS.]
We will take activity among buyers:—It is clear that active buying
in any market arises from a strong demand from persons who desire to
purchase for reasons known to themselves. A strong _bona fide_ demand for
securities means that the public is making money, as they do not enter
the Stock markets as _bona fide_ purchasers, unless they have surplus
monies which they desire to invest and put by in the form of savings.
Now, a speculator who is watching for an opportunity to buy should keep
in view one set of circumstances as favourable to his operations in the
same way that a seller should watch for an opposite combination of causes
as favourable for speculative sales. A bull speculator should know that
his great opportunity occurs after securities generally have been driven
down in price by a severe commercial crisis, which has compelled holders
of stocks upon a large scale to realize. In other words, when prosperity
is beginning to revive after a prolonged stagnation, and the prices of
stocks are very low, the bull speculator’s great chance occurs. When the
great industries of a nation seem to rise as from the grave, and where
lifelessness and inactivity ruled before the blows of the hammer resound
and the blast furnace roars, a new life springs through the arteries of
the commercial system, and the result is a rise in public securities. The
solid rise in the price of stocks is that caused by the hard money-buying
by a public that is well to do. At such a time the bull speculator should
be in the van, for then the golden harvest prepared for his special
sickle invites the reaper. Every trade gets its turn to a certainty.
We will say, during a period of prosperity, a general recovery of the
sounder stocks to a level at which they yield on the money invested 4½
per cent. per annum, takes two years from the time the advance had fairly
set in.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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