The Theory of Stock Exchange SpeculationCrump, Arthur
General
The Theory of Stock Exchange Speculation
Crump, Arthur
Speculation
“The gamblers of our party were but three in number, and all
firm of purpose not to exceed the small risk we had prescribed
for ourselves of 125 francs each. I was the eldest and rashest
of the three, my money being soonest gone, though not for
two or three hours, and it was never for a moment doubtful
but that I should be a loser in the end. My companions were
both cooler and cannier in their play. They did not, like me,
precipitately put down their money before the croupiers had
raked up the stakes lost by the previous catastrophe. They did
not stretch over other players so awkwardly as I did,—indeed,
the croupiers had to rebuke me mildly, by begging me to use a
rake; and then, when I did use the rake, I managed to knock the
most desperate gambler in the room about the head with it, and
draw forth a fierce remonstrance, which made me recall with
uncomfortable vividness that there was a pistol-practising
ground (‘Tir-au pistolet’) in the garden of the hotel, which
would readily furnish the instruments for a meeting, wherein I
should hardly have come off with a mere moral lesson. Indeed,
I felt clear, after watching my companions,—one of them a
shrewd counsel, learned in the law, the other a cool, sagacious
Cantab, who came out high in the Tripos the other day,—that
neither of them had the true gambling instinct as strongly as
I, though so far as their experience went, it seemed to confirm
my own. And what was that experience? This chiefly,—that I was
distinctly conscious of partially attributing to some defect or
stupidity in my own mind every venture on an issue that proved
a failure; that I groped about within me for something in me
like an anticipation or warning (which, of course, was not
to be found) of what the next event was to be, and generally
hit upon some vague impulse in my own mind which determined
me; that whenever I succeeded, I raked up my gains with a
half-impression that I had been a clever fellow, and had made a
judicious stake, just as if I had really moved a skilful move
at chess; and that when I failed, I thought to myself, ‘Ah, I
knew all the time I was going wrong in selecting that number,
and yet I was fool enough to stick to it,’ which, of course was
a pure illusion, for all that I did really know was that the
chance was even, or much more than even, against me. But this
illusion followed me throughout. I had a sense of _deserving_
success when I succeeded, and of having failed through my own
wilfulness, or wrong-headed caprice of choice, when I failed.
When, as not unfrequently happened, I put a coin on the corner
between four numbers, receiving eight times my stake if any of
the four numbers turned up, I was conscious of an honest glow
of self-applause. I could see the same flickering impressions
around me.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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