The Theory of Stock Exchange SpeculationCrump, Arthur
General
The Theory of Stock Exchange Speculation
Crump, Arthur
Speculation
One inevitable evil attending all forms of commercial prosperity is that
they are built up in so large a degree upon a basis of unremunerative
speculation. Such a foundation only serves as a sufficient support to
the superstructure, while the pressure upon it does not pass a certain
limit. If, for example, it be accepted as proved that one Stock Exchange
transaction in twenty is _bona fide_, it is obvious that when the
speculation in those markets shrinks up for the time, which it is sure
to do when it has had its run, a number of stock brokers whose business
has been established by reason of the increase of speculative operations
must fail, unless they have made enough money during the period of
unusual activity to be able to live through the period of stagnation that
intervenes before the next revival. And after every commercial revulsion
a large number of them do fail, and it is not easy to estimate the
mischief that is occasioned by the shock that is communicated to trade
and production by the sudden and complete stoppage of these extra streams
of expenditure.
[Sidenote: THE INFLUENCE OF TRADE PROFITS UPON THE STOCK MARKETS.]
There are great foci whence proceed currents of profit. The currents of
profit may be traced to the great seats of the national industries. The
money made, for example, by the great cotton and iron manufacturers of
this country, distributes itself in a hundred streams from Lancashire
and Yorkshire, to keep within the bounds of two counties.[28] The larger
currents flow into the pockets of two classes, those who are very rich,
and those who are moderately so; while the smaller streams trickle into
the cottages of the labourer and artisan. The wealthy direct their new
gains as they flow in, into the markets for public securities, and the
gains of the labourers follow to some extent in the same direction at
a slower pace, through the lower middle class, whose profits increase
by the augmented consumption of all the primary articles, in which
weekly wages are laid out. In both cases the currents of profit starting
from the great foci of production, spread, embracing all classes of
the community, like the winter’s snows gathered in their wealth in the
mountain heights, which are loosened by the summer sun to flow over and
irrigate the grateful plains below, and are again gathered up to a large
extent for distribution through the Stock Exchanges of Europe.
[Sidenote: AN INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF TRADE PROFITS REALISED, CAUSES AN
INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF SECURITIES.]
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