The Theory of Stock Exchange SpeculationCrump, Arthur
General
The Theory of Stock Exchange Speculation
Crump, Arthur
Speculation
The remarks upon speculation in the foregoing chapters may, perhaps, lead
the reader to infer that our object has been to enter upon a crusade
against all speculators, _guerre à mort_. Such an impression would not be
a correct one, and this chapter is intended, just in conclusion, to show
why. Speculation in the sense of buying for cash or on ordinary credit
what the purchaser has very good reason for knowing is uncommonly cheap,
and what he believes will, ere long, improve in price, does not come
under the category of speculation such as that to which the foregoing
remarks refer. There is hardly an individual who buys anything who is not
at times more or less of a speculator, and he has a perfect right so to
be under given conditions, and his being so under such conditions is a
direct benefit also to the community. For instance, take a very homely
article which will serve for an illustration, bacon. Supposing bacon,
through some passing influence, were to fall considerably in price,
very large purchases would at once be made on speculation, because it
is an article almost certain to be directly consumed in a proportion
greater than the production could be increased. Large quantities would
be taken off the market by both retail and wholesale dealers, who would
store it in anticipation of a recovery in value. They probably would
not want it for immediate use, and would be induced to run the risk of
the operation turning out profitable by reason of its being suddenly so
much cheaper than they had been accustomed to buy it. They would, in one
word, speculate in bacon, just as some people speculate in stocks after a
heavy fall. Unless something had happened to permanently depreciate the
value of bacon this rush of buyers, the great majority of whom would soon
settle their operations by cash payments, would speedily cause at least
a partial recovery in value, which might be followed by a further rise
or relapse according to circumstances. Whether anything serious had been
at work to depreciate value or not, the innumerable interests that would
have suffered by the decline in value would thus be protected at least
for a time by the speculative operations referred to. The price would be
kept up above what it would have been in the absence of such speculative
operations, while either the real or fictitious agency at work in
causing a fall were discovered and analysed. So in a converse sense, if
for some reason or other the price of corn were driven up very rapidly
several shillings per quarter above the value ruling at a particular
period, without holders of large stocks being able to discover sufficient
cause, many of them would hurry to market and sell what was still even
unthrashed. They would be so tempted by the very high price that they
would speculate upon such a high quotation being followed by a low one,
and they would sell all they could manage to deliver in a given time.
The speculator in the bacon would be playing in a legitimate sense the
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