The Theory of Stock Exchange SpeculationCrump, Arthur
General
The Theory of Stock Exchange Speculation
Crump, Arthur
Speculation
from which there was not so much movement.
Then again, a jobber is willing to take a much smaller “turn” on a
transaction which he can depend upon closing in his own book at any
moment, at probably only a fractional difference in price from that at
which he opened it. A speculator wishes, for instance, to buy £10,000
Consols for the rise at 92½. At the time the transaction is done the
jobber knows he can any moment square his book as far as that operation
is concerned, within a trifle of the same figure, and he is accordingly
satisfied with a small “turn.”
On the other hand, a stock that fluctuates violently may leave a buyer
of it a loss of one or two per cent. before he has entered the operation
in his book. The consequence is that a speculator proposing to buy for
the rise £2,000 of a stock which is quoted in the markets at 35 to 38,
will have probably to pay 38 or near about that for it, for the simple
reason that the jobber who sells knows that a widely-quoted stock is
liable to unusual movements in both directions, and he protects himself
accordingly, by declining to sell except at the higher figure, or to
buy except at or below the lowest. The difference may even be wider
than in this hypothetical case. The stock may recently have become very
much depreciated in value, which carries with it the obvious suggestion
that it may fall still further indefinitely, short of the bottom,
for reasons which have so far contributed to depress it. Under such
circumstances, unless the jobbers in the markets have limits at which
to buy such a security, they probably will refuse to purchase from an
outside seller, or from anybody, at any price, unless it come within
the range of a fancy figure. With stocks, therefore, that are liable to
sudden and considerable changes in value, the “turn” assumes dimensions
in proportion, and speculation in such securities is correspondingly
dangerous.
[Sidenote: THE “TURN” THE INCOME OF THE JOBBER.]
For every operation that a speculator enters upon, he contributes to the
income of the jobber. Although this statement is perhaps not literally
accurate, inasmuch as the jobber may sometimes have to sacrifice his
“turn,” and even more, in selling stocks which he has bought in the
course of his business, or in buying back stock which he has sold, it is
sufficiently accurate as demonstrating the position of the speculator.
Whether or not subsequent circumstances deprive the jobber of the turn
he considers himself in the ordinary course of events to have secured,
the speculator has in any case paid it, which is all we are concerned to
show.[45]
CHAPTER XIV.
IN THAT RESPECT IS SPECULATION USEFUL IN MARKETS GENERALLY?
[Sidenote: SPECULATION FOR THE RISE, WHICH IS BOTH LEGITIMATE AND OF
BENEFIT TO THE COMMUNITY.]
[Sidenote: SPECULATION FOR THE FALL, WHICH IS BOTH LEGITIMATE AND OF
BENEFIT TO THE COMMUNITY.]
[Sidenote: A REASONABLE RELATIVE VALUE FOR ALL COMMODITIES.]
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