The Theory of Stock Exchange SpeculationCrump, Arthur
General
The Theory of Stock Exchange Speculation
Crump, Arthur
Speculation
goods shipped to Europe for which they have drawn, will leave a loss.
We have then one class of speculators which is of direct use and value
in all markets, while the other two, the nature of whose operations we
have endeavoured to lay bare, cause an infinite deal of mischief, and
get in ninety-nine cases out of a hundred no good for themselves in the
long run, whether their transactions are entered upon carelessly, and are
allowed simply to take their chance, or an attempt be made to achieve
success by some exercise or skill.
FOOTNOTES
[1] In speaking of taking profits, the question arises, what is a
profit? Some people might say a profit is ½ per cent., and others 10 per
cent. Now, of course, it is impossible to give an exact answer to this
question. As a general rule, a transaction should not be made unless
the chances of a gain are greater than the chances of a loss, but there
may occasions occur when it would be advisable to take a small profit.
All depends on the condition and temper of the market; but one rule I
found to work well, and would recommend to every speculator, namely,
that at the moment when a doubt arises in your mind, and you begin to
ask yourself whether you ought to take your profit or not, then do not
lose one moment’s time, but take your profit, because you can never make
a very serious mistake by doing so, while you might possibly make a very
serious one by refusing it.
[2] Where it says “for the account,” it applies to the custom of the
London Stock Exchange, where all the buying and selling is for the
account, say generally the middle or end of the month.
H. W. R.
[3] According to this principle, operations conducted on options are more
certain to result in profits in the long run than margin operations. If
I assume to make a profit in only one out of every three operations,
and each option costs me 1¼ per cent., I will make a profit, if the
third option only yields me a profit of more than 3¾ per cent., which is
nothing unusual.
H. W. R.
[4] This depends whether it is a bull or a bear market.
H. W. R.
[5] See definitions of these terms, page 20.
[6] Operators means here, what is called in New York, “Insiders” and
members of the Stock Exchange.
H. W. R.
[7] I consider this most important, and maintain that “options enable
the operator to hold out for the event, or at least for a long time,
especially if the process is once or oftener repeated.”
H. W. R.
[8] Very important.
H. W. R.
[9] This hardly applies to the New York market. The so-called larger
operators and traders take here the place of the London jobber.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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