The Theory of Stock Exchange Speculation — John Shaqi
The Theory of Stock Exchange SpeculationCrump, Arthur
General
The Theory of Stock Exchange Speculation
Crump, Arthur
Speculation
Individuals who are tempted, not only by curiosity, but by a love of
excitement, and more than all in this case by the love of gain, go into
the markets and lose their money, and quit the place with much the same
feelings as the man who paid a penny to see a horse with his tail where
his head ought to be.
“If we hope for things of which we have not thoroughly considered the
value, our disappointment will be greater than our pleasure in the
fruition of them,” wrote Addison.
The most brilliant good fortune which may result from the operations of
a speculator generally fall below his anticipations, when the operations
are reduced to figures. It appears that the imagination gets, as it
were, diseased by feeding on the contemplation of very rapid gains; and
that whatever may be the reality of a hypothetical gain, the mind gets
bewildered and fails to estimate as an element of loss, the surrounding
husks in which the fruit is enclosed. One forgets that every tangible
advantage, in whatever form obtained in this life, has to be got out of a
shell. What, then, must be the speculator’s feelings when the balance is
on the wrong side of the account?
It has been suggested that the abolition of “time-bargains” would
materially, if not quite, prevent much of the mischief that results from
speculation; but it is no more possible entirely to do away with the
custom of “time-bargains” than it is to abolish credit in other kinds of
business. It may be readily conceded that a very large number of those
who are ruined or greatly injured by Stock Exchange speculation, would
never operate at all if they were called upon even to make a deposit
before the purchase was effected. But when it is considered that to
abolish “time-bargains” would be to ruin at once half the brokers in
existence, the difficulty of effecting what from one point of view would
be a most salutary change of custom, will be understood. In our day money
is so closely employed that a fortnight is not too long to get the funds
together, when, for some good reason or other, a change of investment
has been determined on. It is often that such a transfer gives rise to a
course of speculation that ends in disaster. A purchase effected for the
account[2] with the view of changing from one stock to another leaves at
the end of the fortnight, we will suppose, a handsome profit. The buyer
of the stock takes it, and postpones the intended change of investment,
thinking he shall get rich sooner by such an operation as that, than by
simply transferring his money to another security that promised a better
yield per cent. He has another try, expecting the same good fortune. In
the end he loses as usual on balance, which he would not probably have
done if he had bought and sold for money, finishing the operation on
the same day. This is what often causes loss to people who can afford
to lose, if they stop soon enough. The great mischief is done by the
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