Scientific astronomy, as distinguished from mere star-gazing, can
hardly claim an age of more than 3000 years. It is less than this since
Pythagoras, Aristarchus and others explained that the earth moved
around a fixed sun. Yet the really significant figure for our present
purpose is not so much the time since men began to make conjectures
about the structure of the universe, as the time since they began
to unravel its true structure by the help of ascertained fact. The
important length of time is that which has elapsed since that evening
in 1610 when Galileo first turned his telescope on to Jupiter—a mere
three centuries or so.
We begin to grasp the true significance of these round-number estimates
when we re-write them in tabular form. We have:
Age of earth about 2,000,000,000 years
Age of life on earth ” 300,000,000 ”
Age of man on earth ” 300,000 ”
Age of astronomical science ” 3,000 ”
Age of telescopic astronomy ” 300 ”
When the various figures are displayed in this form we see what a very
recent phenomenon astronomy is. Its total age is only a hundredth part
of the age of man, only a hundred-thousandth part of the time that life
has inhabited the earth. During 99,999 parts out of the 100,000 of its
existence, life on earth was hardly concerned about anything beyond
the earth. But whereas the past of astronomy is to be measured on the
human time-scale, a hundred generations or so of men, there is every
reason to expect that its future will be measured on the astronomical
time-scale. We shall discuss the probable future stretching before the
human race in a later chapter. For the moment it is not unreasonable to
suppose that this future will probably be terminated by astronomical
causes, so that its length is to be measured on the astronomical
time-scale. As the earth has already existed for 2000 million years,
it is _à priori_ reasonable to suppose that it will exist for at
least something of the order of 2000 million years yet to come, and
humanity and astronomy with it. Actually we shall find reasons for
expecting it to last far longer than this. But if once it is conceded
that its future life is to be estimated on the astronomical time-scale,
no matter in what exact way, we see that astronomy is still at the
very opening of its existence. This is why its message can claim no
finality—we are not describing the mature convictions of a man, so much
as the first impressions of a new-born babe which is just opening its
eyes. Even so they are better than the idle introspective dreamings in
which it indulged before it had learned to look around itself and away
from itself.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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