The Value of MoneyAnderson, Benjamin M. (Benjamin McAlester)
General
The Value of Money
Anderson, Benjamin M. (Benjamin McAlester)
Money
sales increased over 50%, but total trade, as shown by Fisher, increased
only 5%. In the following year, stock sales _decreased_ over 21%, but
total trade, on Fisher's figures, _increased_. The following year, 1901,
stock sales virtually doubled, but Fisher's final figure shows only an
increase around 13%. Two years later, in 1903, stock sales fell off
about 40%, from the figures for 1901, but again, as compared with 1901,
total trade on Fisher's figures shows an appreciable gain. The influence
of stock sales on Fisher's index is, virtually, negligible. The
dominating factor is the _receipts_ of selected staples, cattle,
cotton, rice, pig iron, etc., in the principal cities of the United
States. There is not a _single year_ in which his final figure for T
does not move in harmony with this factor (p. 479). He gets, thus, for
the volume of trade through the fourteen years under consideration, a
surprising steadiness, and a pretty uniform progressive development.
In defence[247] of his method of weighting, Fisher says, simply: "These
weights are, of course, merely matters of opinion, but, as is well
known, _wide differences in systems of weighting make only slight
differences in the final averages_." (Italics mine.)[248]
Are these figures valid? Well, first one is struck with the absolute
magnitude assigned to T. The figures seem vastly greater than would have
been anticipated. The method of calculating it, for 1909, I shall
discuss in detail in the chapter on "Statistical Demonstrations of the
Quantity Theory." For the present, it is enough to note that the
absolute magnitude is derived from figures collected by Dean David
Kinley for the National Monetary Commission,[249] of deposits, exclusive
of deposits made by one bank in another, made in about 12,000 banks (out
of 25,000) on March 16, 1909. These deposits were classified as (1)
money (with subdivisions) and (2) checks and other credit instruments. A
cross-classification divided them into (1) retail deposits; (2)
wholesale deposits; (3) all other deposits. Kinley's object was to
determine the extent to which checks are used, as compared with money,
in payments, particularly in wholesale and retail business. Fisher's
total, briefly, was obtained as follows: Kinley's figures, for the one
day, were increased to make an allowance for the non-reporting banks;
they were further increased on the assumption that March 16 was below
the average for the year; the figure finally obtained for the day was
then multiplied by 303, assumed as the number of banking days in the
year, and the product, 399 billions, was taken as representing the total
circulation of money and checks in trade. For some reason not made
clear, this total was subsequently reduced to 387 billions. Counting the
average price, P, as $1, T was considered to be 387 billions.[250]
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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