The Value of MoneyAnderson, Benjamin M. (Benjamin McAlester)
General
The Value of Money
Anderson, Benjamin M. (Benjamin McAlester)
Money
Let us consider, first, Professor Fisher's estimate of M'V', taken
together. M'V' is considered to be equal to the total amount (in
dollars) of checks deposited during the year.[386] To get this, for
1909, Kinley's figure, above, for checks deposited in 11,492 banks on
March 16, 1909, is used. This figure is 647 millions. As half the banks
had not reported, an estimate for the non-reporting banks was obtained
from Professor Weston, who had aided Dean Kinley in the investigation,
and who had access to the original data. Professor Weston estimated the
total checks deposited during the day at 1.02 billions.[387] The
question then arose as to whether this day was typical for the year.
Professor Fisher found New York City bank clearings of March 17 (the day
after, on which these checks would get into the clearings) to be 28%
below the average for the year. He assumed the rest of the country to be
half as abnormal as New York City, and increased the 1.02 billions to
1.20 billions, getting what he conceived to be the daily average of
checks deposited in the United States in 1909. Multiplying this figure
by 303, the number of banking days in New York City (and so, presumably,
a fair average for the number of banking days in the country), he
obtained 364 billions for the checks deposited in 1909. This figure he
considered to be M'V', the volume of bank deposits,[388] multiplied by
its velocity of circulation. To obtain V', therefore, his problem was
simple: he divided the figure for M'V' by the figure for M' previously
obtained from government statistics, and obtained V'.
Now I wish to call attention to three important errors involved in this
calculation of M'V' for 1909. (1) The assumption that the total check
circulation is the same as the volume of checks actually used in _trade_
is a violent one. _Payments_ may be tax payments, loans and repayments,
gifts, what not. Many checks may be used in a single transaction. Surely
not all of this is properly to be counted in the M'V' of the equation of
exchange. But this topic is better discussed in connection with the
estimate for T, and I reserve its fuller discussion till then. (2) The
assumption that the rest of the country was abnormal in its clearings on
March 17, 1909, is a pure assumption, which investigation does not
verify. The rest of the country was, in fact, nearly normal! The error
that comes for the year from increasing the total on this assumption
amounts to at least 31 billions! The total for the year, on Professor
Fisher's method of computation, with the correction to make the
assumption regarding outside clearings correspond with the facts, is 333
billions, instead of 364 billions! As the figure for 1909 is a basic
figure, on which figures for other years are calculated, this error is
extremely significant.[389]
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