The Value of MoneyAnderson, Benjamin M. (Benjamin McAlester)
General
The Value of Money
Anderson, Benjamin M. (Benjamin McAlester)
Money
(3) A yet more serious error in this computation is the assumption that
New York City was complete in Kinley's figures, while the rest of the
country was incomplete. This error, as we shall see, largely neutralizes
the error above, so far as the "finally adjusted" figure for 1909 is
concerned, but it makes a vital difference in the figures for other
years, as will appear, since it affects the "weighting" of New York
clearings and outside clearings in the index of variation by means of
which M'V' for years other than 1909 is determined. The assumption that
New York is complete, in Kinley's figures, and that all of the extra
hundreds of millions added by Professor Weston in his estimate for the
non-reporting banks belongs to the country outside New York, is made by
Professor Fisher both on pp. 444-445, in estimating M'V' for 1909, and
on p. 446, in finding an index of variation for M'V'. The only reason
given, so far as I can find, is the following: "This figure, _being for
New York_, [Italics mine], is probably nearly complete." (_Loc. cit._,
p. 446.) With this as a basis, Professor Fisher proceeds in his
calculations to treat the figure for New York, 239 millions, as
absolutely complete, and gives the rest of Professor Weston's 1.02
billions for the day, or 786 millions, to the country outside. The error
above mentioned, of assuming the rest of the country to be abnormally
low on March 17 in its clearings, still further increases the amount
assigned to the rest of the country in the total figures for the
year.[390] The conclusion finally is that New York had deposits of 93
billions in checks for the year, while the rest of the country had
deposits of 271 billions in checks. As New York clearings for the year
were 104 billions, while clearings for the rest of the country were only
62 billions, Professor Fisher concludes that New York clearings
overcount New York check deposits, and outside clearings greatly
undercount outside check deposits, so that, in the index of variation of
check deposits, for years other than 1909 and 1896, New York clearings
should be given a weight of only 1, while outside clearings should be
weighted by 5. "That is, on the basis of 1909 figures, five times the
outside clearings plus once the New York clearings should be a good
barometer of check transactions." (P. 447.) All this rests on the
assumption that New York figures for March 16, 1909, were complete, and
the only reason assigned is, "being from New York!"
Now the figures from New York were not complete. And New York clearings
do not overcount New York check deposits. Outside clearings do not
undercount outside check deposits nearly to the extent that Professor
Fisher assumes. For each of these three statements I shall offer what
would seem to be conclusive evidence, and I shall attempt to get an
estimate of the real relation between New York check transactions and
check transactions for the rest of the country.
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