The Value of MoneyAnderson, Benjamin M. (Benjamin McAlester)
General
The Value of Money
Anderson, Benjamin M. (Benjamin McAlester)
Money
The two sets of data converge. Both from the figures of 1913-14, in
conjunction with estimated check circulation in 1909, and from the
figures of 1890-92, can we conclude that New York clearings do not
overcount New York transactions. The conclusion would seem to be
inevitable that New York is really as important in our volume of banking
transactions as its clearings would indicate. This may be qualified by a
recognition of the possibility that New York clearings are more
efficient in handling check deposits than are clearings in other cities.
Some scattering data from national banks for single days at a time
indicate that a higher percentage of checks is cleared in New York than
elsewhere in the country,[409] and one observation for five national
banks for a ten-day period shows 67% of checks deposited cleared.[410]
These checks include deposits made by other banks, as do the figures of
Kemmerer's observations. But there are no direct observations covering
New York for a long enough period, or for enough institutions, to
warrant any definite conclusions.[411]
The error of assuming clearings of March 17 in the country outside New
York to be abnormally low, swelled Professor Fisher's total figure for
check circulation by 31 billions, as we have seen. On the other hand,
the error of assuming New York City to be complete in Kinley's figures
tended to make the total smaller than it would have been, since New York
City was 28% below normal, and an increase of 28% applied to half of
Professor Weston's figure of 1.02 billions, gives about 70 millions more
for the day, or 21 billions more for the year, than when the 28%
increase is applied to only a quarter of Professor Weston's figure.
These two errors roughly neutralize one another, and we may accept
Professor Fisher's "finally adjusted" estimate of 353 billions[412] for
the year as roughly approximating the amount of checks deposited.[413]
How "rough" an estimate one gets by taking a single day as the basis for
a year need not be here discussed. I should be disposed to think that an
indirect calculation, _via_ clearings, in view of our more extensive
knowledge of the relation of clearings to "total transactions," might
well be worth more, so far as deposits outside New York are concerned.
Since, however, we lack any extended figures for the relation of
transactions and clearings in New York, and since even for the country
we are obliged to make guesses as to the relation of "checks deposited"
to "total transactions," I refrain from trying to improve further on
Professor Fisher's estimate for checks deposited in 1909--even though
questioning that "check deposits" and M'V' are identical.
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