The Value of MoneyAnderson, Benjamin M. (Benjamin McAlester)
General
The Value of Money
Anderson, Benjamin M. (Benjamin McAlester)
Money
What, however, shall we say of M'V' for other years? In the calculation
of this, Professor Fisher relies on the absolute figures for 1909 (and
1896, similarly calculated), together with an "index" based on New York
and country clearings. In this index he weights country clearings by
5,[414] and New York clearings by 1. The result is, of course, that
country clearings dominate the index. But New York clearings are much
more variable than country clearings. The range of variation in New York
clearings for the years 1897 to 1908, inclusive, is from 33.4 billions
in 1897, to 104.7 billions, in 1906; the latter figure being more than
three times as great as the former. The range in country clearings is
from 23.8 billions, in 1897, to 57.8 billions, in 1907, the latter
figure being 2-10/23 as great as the former. But more significant is the
degree of _year by year_ variability. The country clearings, with the
exception of 1908, always rise,--a steady, if not quite symmetrical,
increase. New York clearings, however, go up and down, 42 billions in
1898, 60.8 billions in 1899, 52.6 billions in 1900, 79.4 billions in
1901, 66.0 billions in 1903, 104.7 billions in 1906, 87.2 billions in
1907, 79.3 billions in 1908. New York clearings are highly variable in
both directions, while country clearings vary almost wholly in one
direction, with a maximum difference of 6.4 billions between any two
consecutive years, and with an average yearly variation of only 3.5
billions.[415] When country clearings are weighted by 5, almost all of
the high degree of variability of New York clearings is covered up, and
volume of checks deposited for years other than 1909 and 1896 is thrown
hopelessly away from the facts. It is too large by far in most years. In
1905, 1906 and probably 1901 it is too small. It does not vary nearly
enough. As V' for years other than 1909 and 1896 is determined, for
Professor Fisher's equation, by dividing the M'V' thus estimated by the
M' for the year, it is clear that V' as estimated by Professor Fisher is
very much less variable than it is in fact. It is pretty variable even
in his figures, but his figures do not nearly show how variable it
is.[416]
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