The war and our financial fabricWall, Walter William
History
The war and our financial fabric
Wall, Walter William
Banks and banking -- Great Britain; Currency question -- Great Britain; World War, 1914-1918 -- Economic aspects -- Great Britain
We know that efforts are made, by raising the Bank rate, to replenish
the reserve automatically from outside sources. But whether the gold
flows in or not, it does not disprove the fact that a high proportion
in the independent joint stock banks and in the independent Bank
of England cannot be maintained at simultaneous moments except by
a simultaneous refusal to lend. It needs no exceptional power of
imagination to picture what would result from this action. It would
have the same consequences as a great destruction of capital by war
or any other calamity. If we had an elastic legal tender system, to
provide for what I call a supplementary inflow of legal tender, we
could avoid many inconveniences from which the money market and the
nation suffers.
The supply of liquid capital in a perfect economic system should keep
pace with the output of wealth. But our system is not perfect. Progress
must necessarily be impeded by artificial and arbitrary restrictions.
I think, too, we could simplify the problem by segregating the
composite deposits of a bank. These deposits are an aggregation of
what I call, for lack of something more precise, pure deposits and
loan-deposits. The loan-deposits are debts to the bank, which the
bank has power to call in. If these loan-depositors have legal power
to withdraw money on demand, the banks have power to withdraw from
many of them on demand. On the approach of a crisis, or stringency,
they do this, though in certain contingencies such withdrawals might
precipitate a crisis. Nevertheless, the important fact remains that
they have power to call them in.
If we set the gold reserves against the pure deposits we shall find
that the reserve is invariably high.
But why do we want a high proportion? Why do we wish to hoard gold,
when we know that the hoarding of gold is more harmful than beneficial?
To avoid a panic, the critics and seers say. But a panic is not a
mathematical problem; it is a psychological problem. If mathematics
could save us from fear and madness we could then automatically ensure
general sanity and common sense. What mathematical proportion will save
us from a panic? Who is to lay down the proportion? Where are we to
draw the magical line of safety? Is it to be an exact proportion or an
approximate proportion? Is it to be an universally exact or universally
approximate proportion? Or is it to be an individually exact or
approximate proportion? There can be no exactitude, particularly if
we include the Bank of England. In mathematics, however, we must have
exactitude, for half per cent below the formula might be fatal. And if
in order to keep up the proportion simultaneously in Lombard Street and
Threadneedle Street lending ceases, then the crisis comes, despite the
proportion.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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