"I think it probable myself, that peace will be effected one way or another in the course of the year. The present favorable situation of the Russian army, the dispersed and disheartened situation of the Ottoman, the succor promised by Prussia, so long deferred, the little hope of immediate relief from the geographical position of that power, the ardent desire of Russia to effect a peace without mediation, and the sacrifices she is disposed to make to effect it; all induce me to believe that it will be brought about in that way. If, however, the Porte, from a well-founded confidence in the active interference of the mediating powers, should decide still to hold out, then it seems that the Empress will be induced to come to terms rather than enter the lists with new and powerful enemies, from whom she would have much to fear, particularly by sea. Still I find several who think, from the character of the Empress, that she will resist, and try the event of a campaign rather than sacrifice so much success and so much glory in having a peace dictated to her. Her resources at home are without end from her mode of calling them into action, and her credit, even here, stands high; certainly much higher than it should do. It is supposed, also, that in this extremity she would be seconded by the Emperor, notwithstanding his pacific turn. He would be authorized by treaty to do this, and his present situation would enable him; the disturbances in the various parts of his dominions having been all settled. In Brabant, particularly, his authority is more firmly settled than if he had come to it by inheritance only, since he enjoys it also by a kind of conquest. "It is the system of the English Cabinet which is considered here as the most unaccountable. The commerce of that country is at present in the most prosperous situation, since the balance is in their favor with every part of Europe. They have more to gain by peace and more to apprehend from war, than any other power, and yet they seem determined to risk it. The advantages of their commerce in the Baltic, are certain: those in the Levant, eventual; still they seem determined to sacrifice one, at least for a time, in order to grasp at the other. On the whole, it is regarded as one of those sacrifices of commerce to politics, which France has so often given examples of. Time will show whether Mr. Pitt, or those who condemn him, are in the right." TO WILLIAM CARMICHAEL. Philadelphia, April 11, 1791.