There is a striking passage in Addison's "Vision of Mirza," in which
life is pictured as a passage over a bridge of about a hundred arches. A
black cloud hangs over each end of the bridge. At the entrance to it
there are hidden pitfalls very thickly set, through which throngs
disappear, so soon as they have placed their feet upon the bridge. They
grow thinner towards the centre; they gradually disappear; until at
length only a few persons reach the further side, and these also having
dropped through the pitfalls, the bridge at its further extremity
becomes entirely clear. The description of Addison corresponds with the
results of the observations made as to the duration of human life.
Thus, of a hundred thousand persons born in this country, it has been
ascertained that a fourth of them die before they have reached their
fifth year; and one-half before they have reached their fiftieth year.
One thousand one hundred will reach their ninetieth year. Sixteen will
live to a hundred. And only two persons out of the hundred
thousand--like the last barks of an innumerable convoy, will reach the
advanced and helpless age of a hundred and five years.
Two things are very obvious,--the uncertainty as to the hour of death in
individuals, but the regularity and constancy of the circumstances which
influence the duration of human life in the aggregate. It is a matter of
certainty that the _average_ life of all persons born in this country
extends to about forty-five years. This has been proved by a very large
number of observations of human life and its duration.
Equally extensive observations have been made as to the average number
of persons of various ages who die yearly. It is always the number of
the experiments which gives the law of the probability. It is on such
observations that the actuary founds his estimates of the mortality that
exists at any given period of life. The actuary tells you that he has
been guided by the Laws of Mortality. Now the results must be very
regular, to justify the actuary in speaking of Mortality as governed by
Laws. And yet it is so.
Indeed, there would seem to be no such thing as chance in the world. Man
lives and dies in conformity to a law. A sparrow falls to the ground in
obedience to a law. Nay, there are matters in the ordinary transactions
of life, such as one might suppose were the mere result of chance, which
are ascertained to be of remarkable accuracy when taken in the mass. For
instance, the number of letters put in the post-office without an
address; the number of letters wrongly directed; the number containing
money; the number unstamped; continue nearly the same, in relation to
the number of letters posted, from one year to another.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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