Vaccination a Delusion: Its Penal Enforcement a Crime: Proved by the Official Evidence in the Reports of the Royal CommissionWallace, Alfred Russel
Science
Vaccination a Delusion: Its Penal Enforcement a Crime: Proved by the Official Evidence in the Reports of the Royal Commission
Wallace, Alfred Russel
Vaccination
In the elaborate paper by Sir John Simon, on the History and Practice of
Vaccination, presented to Parliament in 1857 and reprinted in the First
Report of the Royal Commission, he tells us that the earlier evidence of
the value of vaccination was founded on _individual cases_, but that now
“from individual cases the appeal is to masses of national experience.”
And the marginal reference is, “Evidence on the protectiveness of
vaccination must now be statistical.” If this was true in 1857, how
much more must it be so now, when we have forty years more of “national
experience” to go upon. Dr. Guy, M.D., F.R.S., enforces this view in his
paper published by the Royal Statistical Society in 1882. He says: “Is
vaccination a preventive of small-pox? To this question there is, there
can be, no answer except such as is couched in the language of figures.”
But the language of figures, otherwise the science of statistics, is not
one which he who runs may read. It is full of pitfalls for the unwary,
and requires either special aptitude or special training to avoid these
pitfalls and deduce from the mass of figures at our command what they
really teach.
A commission or committee of enquiry into this momentous question should
have consisted wholly, or almost wholly, of statisticians, who would
hear medical as well as official and independent evidence, would have
all existing official statistics at their command, and would be able to
tell us, with some show of authority, exactly what the figures proved,
and what they only rendered probable on one side and on the other. But
instead of such a body of experts, the Royal Commission, which for more
than six years was occupied in hearing evidence and cross-examining
witnesses, consisted wholly of medical men, lawyers, politicians, and
country gentlemen, none of whom were trained statisticians, while the
majority came to the enquiry more or less prejudiced in favour of
vaccination. The report of such a body can have but little value, and
I hope to satisfy my readers that it (the Majority Report) is not in
accordance with the facts; that the reporters have lost themselves in the
mazes of unimportant details; and that they have fallen into some of the
pitfalls which encumber the path of those who, without adequate knowledge
or training, attempt to deal with great masses of figures.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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