George O. Smith is a radio engineer; radio is his field of technology.
As such, his predictions tend to be based on the extrapolation of a
single line of activity. But it may be that all his predictions may
come to nothing due to a development in an entirely separate field of
technical progress. It might be, for instance, that Dr. Rhine's work on
extra-sensory perception developed into a science, that equipment was
developed capable of recording, receiving, amplifying and broadcasting
whatever strange energy form is involved--and that telepathy completely
displaced radio engineering. The atomic pile is the only form of
nuclear energy machine we have available; because war-time engineering
was operating under forced draft, and war-time basic science was in
abeyance, we have no basic science from which to predict more advanced
forms of energy-harnessing devices. But it is quite conceivable that,
long before we reach Mars and Venus to establish colonies, we will
achieve the ultimate in energy-harnesses for atomic energy--a small,
sealed box with two projecting terminals from which unlimited electric
power can be drawn directly.
Also, any extrapolation whatsoever is, necessarily, based on the
implied, but unstated proposition, "If things go on as they have
been...." The proposition is, right now, open to serious question. For
one thing, whenever science becomes engineering, it meets legislation
made by men. Now the laws of Nature are predictable, understandable,
and absolute. They don't depend on the viewpoint of the individual,
or the social theory popular at the time, or the Majority Leader's
severe chronic indigestion. The patent law very definitely does. At the
moment, as a matter of fact, an extrapolation of the trend of patent
law suggests that half the Venus Equilateral series will be rendered
plotless; there won't be any patents.
The science-fiction writer is, therefore, faced with a simply stated
problem: Taking off from the solid ground of known laboratory science,
sighting along the back-track of past experience, he launches into the
future.
But he may come down in a never-will-be future, because somebody
harnessed telepathy, and threw civilization off on an entirely
unexpected track. Or because the Supreme Court, currently invalidating
24 out of every 25 patents brought before it, has eliminated the
institution of patents. Or because a new social theory has decided that
no scientific advance should be permitted for a period of 250 years
while a great program of meditation and navel-inspection instead of
Naval inspection is pushed forward.
Nevertheless, science-fiction can be not only fun, but an extremely
valuable experience. If a friend steps out of a dimly lighted doorway
it may provoke a "Yipe!" of momentary fear, or a casual "Hi," dependent
entirely on whether or not you expected to meet him there.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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