Recording historic eruptions and modern volcano-monitoring in themselves
are insufficient to fully determine the characteristic behavior of a
volcano, because a time record of such information, though perhaps long
in human terms, is much too short in geologic terms to permit reliable
predictions of possible future behavior. A comprehensive investigation
of any volcano must also include the careful, systematic mapping of the
nature, volume, and distribution of the products of prehistoric
eruptions, as well as the determination of their ages by modern isotopic
and other dating methods. Research on the volcano’s geologic past
extends the data base for refined estimates of the recurrence intervals
of active versus dormant periods in the history of the volcano. With
such information in hand, scientists can construct so-called “volcanic
hazards” maps that delineate the zones of greatest risk around the
volcano and that designate which zones are particularly susceptible to
certain types of volcanic hazards (lava flows, ash fall, toxic gases,
mudflows and associated flooding, etc.).
A strikingly successful example of volcano research and volcanic-hazard
assessment was the 1978 publication (Bulletin 1383-C) by two Geological
Survey scientists, Dwight Crandell and Donal Mullineaux, who concluded
that Mount St. Helens was the Cascade volcano most frequently active in
the past 4,500 years and the one most likely to reawaken to erupt, “...
perhaps before the end of this century.” Their prediction came true when
Mount St. Helens rumbled back to life in March of 1980. Intermittent
explosions of ash and steam and periodic formation of short-lived lava
domes continued throughout the decade. Analysis of the volcano’s past
behavior indicates that this kind of eruptive activity may continue for
years or decades, but another catastrophic eruption like that of May 18,
1980, is unlikely to occur soon.
On 18 May 1982, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) formally dedicated the
David A. Johnston Cascades Volcano Observatory (CVO) in Vancouver,
Washington, in memory of the Survey volcanologist killed two years
earlier. This facility—a sister observatory to the Hawaiian Volcano
Observatory—facilitates the increased monitoring and research on not
only Mount St. Helens but also the other volcanoes of the Cascade Range
of the Pacific Northwest. More recently, in cooperation with the State
of Alaska, the USGS established the Alaska Volcano Observatory in March
1988. The work being done at these volcano observatories provides
important comparisons and contrasts between the behavior of the
generally non-explosive Hawaiian shield volcanoes and that of the
generally explosive composite volcanoes of the Cascade and Alaskan
Peninsula-Aleutian chains.
Volcanoes and People
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