To the Emperor William, who had resumed the conduct of affairs since the
morning of the 27th--the Emperor William, itching to cut the knot,
driven on by his Staff and his generals--to him and no other must we
trace the responsibility for this insolent move which made war
inevitable. "The heads of the army insisted," was all that Herr von
Jagow would vouchsafe a little later to M. Cambon by way of explanation.
The Chancellor, and with him the Foreign Secretary and Under-Secretary,
associated themselves with these hazardous tactics, from sheer inability
to secure the adoption of less hasty and violent methods. If they
believed that this summary breaking off of negotiations would meet with
success, they were as grievously mistaken as Count de Pourtales, whose
reports utterly misled them as to the sacrifices that Russia was
prepared to make for Serbia.
At all events this upright man, when he realized the appalling effects
of his blunder, gave free play to his emotion. Such sensitiveness is
rare indeed in a German, and redounds entirely to his credit.
[Sidenote: Russian military development.]
[Sidenote: French military situation.]
But the Emperor and his council of generals--what was their state of
soul at this critical moment? Perhaps this riddle will never be wholly
solved. From the military point of view, which in their eyes claimed
first attention, they must have rejoiced at M. Sazonoff's answer, for
never again would they find such a golden opportunity for vanquishing
Russia and making an end of her rivalry. In 1917 the reorganization of
her army would have been complete, her artillery would have been at full
strength, and a new network of strategic railways would have enabled her
to let loose upon the two Germanic empires a vast flood of fighting men
drawn from the inexhaustible reservoir of her population. The struggle
with the colossus of the North, despite the vaunted technical
superiority of the German army, would in all likelihood have ended in
the triumph of overwhelming might. In the France of 1917, again, the
three years' term of service would have begun to produce its full
results, and her first-line troops would have been both more numerous
and better trained than at present.
On the other hand, William II could cherish no false hopes as to the
consequences of this second pressure that he was bringing to bear on
St. Petersburg. Had it succeeded in 1914 as in 1909, the encounter
between Germany and the great Slav Empire would only have been put off
to a later day, instead of being finally shelved. How could the Tsar or
the Russian people have forgiven the Kaiser for humbling them once more?
If they had pocketed the affront in silence, it would only have been in
order to bide their time for revenge, and they would have chosen the
moment when Russia, in possession of all her resources, could have
entered upon the struggle with every chance of winning.
[Sidenote: William II and Russia.]
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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