The English works of Thomas Hobbes of Malmesbury, Volume 05 (of 11)
Thomas Hobbes · en
another cast, or necessitate them to this cast and no other. Howsoever,
so far as the cast is free or contingent, so far it is not necessary:
and where necessity begins, there liberty and contingency do cease to
be. Likewise his other instance of raining or not raining to-morrow, is
not of a free elective act, nor always of a contingent act. In some
countries, as they have their _stati venti_, their certain winds at set
seasons; so they have their certain and set rains. The Ethiopian rains
are supposed to be the cause of the certain inundation of Nilus. In some
eastern countries they have rain only twice a year, and those constant;
which the Scriptures call _the former and the later rain_. In such
places not only the causes do act determinately and necessarily, but
also the determination or necessity of the event is foreknown to the
inhabitants. In our climate, the natural causes celestial and sublunary
do not produce rain so necessarily at set times; neither can we say so
certainly and infallibly, it will rain to-morrow, or it will not rain
to-morrow. Nevertheless, it may so happen that the causes are so
disposed and determined, even in our climate, that this proposition, it
will rain to-morrow or it will not rain to-morrow, may be necessary in
itself; and the prognostics, or tokens, may be such in the sky, in our
own bodies, in the creatures, animate and inanimate, as weather glasses,
&c., that it may become probably true to us that it will rain to-morrow,
or it will not rain to-morrow. But ordinarily, it is a contingent
proposition to us; whether it be contingent also in itself, that is,
whether the concurrence of the causes were absolutely necessary, whether
the vapours or matter of the rain may not yet be dispersed, or otherwise
consumed, or driven beyond our coast, is a speculation which no way
concerns this question. So we see one reason why his two instances are
altogether impertinent; because they are of actions which are not free,
nor elective, nor such as proceed from the liberty of man’s will.