Conspiracies are discovered either by disclosures made, or by
conjecture. Disclosures are made through the treachery or folly of
those to whom you communicate your design. Treachery is to be looked
for, because you can impart your plans only to such persons as you
believe ready to face death on your behalf, or to those who are
discontented with the prince. Of men whom you can trust thus
implicitly, one or two may be found; but when you have to open your
designs to many, they cannot all be of this nature; and their goodwill
towards you must be extreme if they are not daunted by the danger and
by fear of punishment. Moreover men commonly deceive themselves in
respect of the love which they imagine others bear them, nor can ever
be sure of it until they have put it to the proof. But to make proof of
it in a matter like this is very perilous; and even if you have proved
it already, and found it true in some other dangerous trial, you cannot
assume that there will be the same fidelity here, since this far
transcends every other kind of danger. Again, if you gauge a man’s
fidelity by his discontent with the prince, you may easily deceive
yourself; for so soon as you have taken this discontented man into your
confidence, you have supplied him with the means whereby he may become
contented; so that either his hatred of the prince must be great
indeed, or your influence over him extraordinary, if it keep him
faithful. Hence it comes that so many conspiracies have been discovered
and crushed in their earliest stage, and that when the secret is
preserved among many accomplices for any length of time, it is looked
on as a miracle; as in the case of the conspiracy of Piso against Nero,
and, in our own days, in that of the Pazzi against Lorenzo and Giuliano
de’ Medici; which last, though more than fifty persons were privy to
it, was not discovered until it came to be carried out.
Conspiracies are disclosed through the imprudence of a conspirator when
he talks so indiscreetly that some servant, or other person not in the
plot, overhears him; as happened with the sons of Brutus, who, when
treating with the envoys of Tarquin, were overheard by a slave, who
became their accuser; or else through your own weakness in imparting
your secret to some woman or boy whom you love, or to some other such
light person; as when Dymnus, who was one of those who conspired with
Philotas against Alexander the Great, revealed the plot to Nicomachus,
a youth whom he loved, who at once told Cebalinus, and Cebalinus the
king.