A System of Logic: Ratiocinative and Inductive, 7th Edition, Vol. I
John Stuart Mill · en
The object of Kepler was to determine the real path described by each
of the planets, or let us say by the planet Mars (since it was of that
body that he first established the two of his three laws which did not
require a comparison of planets). To do this there was no other mode
than that of direct observation: and all which observation could do was
to ascertain a great number of the successive places of the planet; or
rather, of its apparent places. That the planet occupied successively
all these positions, or at all events, positions which produced the same
impressions on the eye, and that it passed from one of these to another
insensibly, and without any apparent breach of continuity; thus much the
senses, with the aid of the proper instruments, could ascertain. What
Kepler did more than this, was to find what sort of a curve these
different points would make, supposing them to be all joined together.
He expressed the whole series of the observed places of Mars by what Dr.
Whewell calls the general conception of an ellipse. This operation was
far from being as easy as that of the navigator who expressed the series
of his observations on successive points of the coast by the general
conception of an island. But it is the very same sort of operation; and
if the one is not an induction but a description, this must also be true
of the other.
The only real induction concerned in the case, consisted in inferring
that because the observed places of Mars were correctly represented by
points in an imaginary ellipse, therefore Mars would continue to revolve
in that same ellipse; and in concluding (before the gap had been filled
up by further observations) that the positions of the planet during the
time which intervened between two observations, must have coincided with
the intermediate points of the curve. For these were facts which had not
been directly observed. They were inferences from the observations;
facts inferred, as distinguished from facts seen. But these inferences
were so far from being a part of Kepler's philosophical operation, that
they had been drawn long before he was born. Astronomers had long known
that the planets periodically returned to the same places. When this had
been ascertained, there was no induction left for Kepler to make, nor
did he make any further induction. He merely applied his new conception
to the facts inferred, as he did to the facts observed. Knowing already
that the planets continued to move in the same paths; when he found that
an ellipse correctly represented the past path, he knew that it would
represent the future path. In finding a compendious expression for the
one set of facts, he found one for the other: but he found the
expression only, not the inference; nor did he (which is the true test
of a general truth) add anything to the power of prediction already
possessed.