A System of Logic: Ratiocinative and Inductive, 7th Edition, Vol. I
John Stuart Mill · en
faisons aucune illusion sur la réalité des hypothèses; ce qui nous
permet d'employer sans scrupule, en chaque cas, celle que nous jugeons
la plus avantageuse."[5]
Dr. Whewell's remark, therefore, is philosophically correct. Successive
expressions for the colligation of observed facts, or in other words,
successive descriptions of a phenomenon as a whole, which has been
observed only in parts, may, though conflicting, be all correct as far
as they go. But it would surely be absurd to assert this of conflicting
inductions.
The scientific study of facts may be undertaken for three different
purposes: the simple description of the facts; their explanation; or
their prediction: meaning by prediction, the determination of the
conditions under which similar facts may be expected again to occur. To
the first of these three operations the name of Induction does not
properly belong: to the other two it does. Now, Dr. Whewell's
observation is true of the first alone. Considered as a mere
description, the circular theory of the heavenly motions represents
perfectly well their general features: and by adding epicycles without
limit, those motions, even as now known to us, might be expressed with
any degree of accuracy that might be required. The elliptical theory, as
a mere description, would have a great advantage in point of simplicity,
and in the consequent facility of conceiving it and reasoning about it;
but it would not really be more true than the other. Different
descriptions, therefore, may be all true: but not, surely, different
explanations. The doctrine that the heavenly bodies moved by a virtue
inherent in their celestial nature; the doctrine that they were moved by
impact, (which led to the hypothesis of vortices as the only impelling
force capable of whirling bodies in circles,) and the Newtonian
doctrine, that they are moved by the composition of a centripetal with
an original projectile force; all these are explanations, collected by
real induction from supposed parallel cases; and they were all
successively received by philosophers, as scientific truths on the
subject of the heavenly bodies. Can it be said of these, as was said of
the different descriptions, that they are all true as far as they go? Is
it not clear that only one can be true in any degree, and the other two
must be altogether false? So much for explanations: let us now compare
different predictions: the first, that eclipses will occur when one
planet or satellite is so situated as to cast its shadow upon another;
the second, that they will occur when some great calamity is impending
over mankind. Do these two doctrines only differ in the degree of their
truth, as expressing real facts with unequal degrees of accuracy?
Assuredly the one is true, and the other absolutely false.[6]