A System of Logic: Ratiocinative and Inductive, 7th Edition, Vol. II
John Stuart Mill · en
[43] A writer to whom I have several times referred, gives as the
definition of an impossibility, that which there exists in the world no
cause adequate to produce. This definition does not take in such
impossibilities as these--that two and two should make five; that two
straight lines should inclose a space; or that anything should begin to
exist without a cause. I can think of no definition of impossibility
comprehensive enough to include all its varieties, except the one which
I have given: viz. An impossibility is that, the truth of which would
conflict with a complete induction, that is, with the most conclusive
evidence which we possess of universal truth.
As to the reputed impossibilities which rest on no other grounds than
our ignorance of any cause capable of producing the supposed effects;
very few of them are certainly impossible, or permanently incredible.
The facts of travelling seventy miles an hour, painless surgical
operations, and conversing by instantaneous signals between London and
New York, held a high place, not many years ago, among such
impossibilities.
[44] Not, however, as might at first sight appear, 999 times as much. A
complete analysis of the cases shows that (always assuming the veracity
of the witness to be 9/10) in 10,000 drawings, the drawing of No. 79
will occur nine times, and be announced incorrectly once; the
credibility therefore of the announcement of No. 79 is 9/10; while the
drawing of a white ball will occur nine times, and be announced
incorrectly 999 times. The credibility therefore of the announcement of
white is 9/1008, and the ratio of the two 1008:10; the one announcement
being thus only about a hundred times more credible than the other,
instead of 999 times.
BOOK IV.
OF OPERATIONS SUBSIDIARY TO INDUCTION.
"Clear and distinct ideas are terms which, though familiar and frequent
in men's mouths, I have reason to think every one who uses does not
perfectly understand. And possibly it is but here and there one who
gives himself the trouble to consider them so far as to know what he
himself or others precisely mean by them; I have, therefore, in most
places, chose to put determinate or determined, instead of clear and
distinct, as more likely to direct men's thoughts to my meaning in this
matter."--LOCKE'S _Essay on the Human Understanding_; Epistle to the
Reader.
"Il ne peut y avoir qu'une méthode parfaite, qui est la _méthode
naturelle_; on nomme ainsi un arrangement dans lequel les êtres du même
genre seraient plus voisins entre eux que ceux de tous les autres
genres; les genres du même ordre, plus que ceux de tous les autres
ordres; et ainsi de suite. Cette méthode est l'idéal auquel l'histoire
naturelle doit tendre; car il est évident que si l'on y parvenait, l'on
aurait l'expression exacte et complète de la nature entière."--CUVIER,
_Règne Animal_, Introduction.