A System of Logic: Ratiocinative and Inductive, 7th Edition, Vol. II
John Stuart Mill · en
Coleridge, in one of the essays in the _Friend_, has illustrated the
matter we are now considering, in discussing the origin of a proverb,
"which, differently worded, is to be found in all the languages of
Europe," viz. "Fortune favours fools." He ascribes it partly to the
"tendency to exaggerate all effects that seem disproportionate to their
visible cause, and all circumstances that are in any way strongly
contrasted with our notions of the persons under them." Omitting some
explanations which would refer the error to mal-observation, or to the
other species of non-observation (that of circumstances), I take up the
quotation farther on. "Unforeseen coincidences may have greatly helped a
man, yet if they have done for him only what possibly from his own
abilities he might have effected for himself, his good luck will excite
less attention, and the instances be less remembered. That clever men
should attain their objects seems natural, and we neglect the
circumstances that perhaps produced that success of themselves, without
the intervention of skill or foresight; but we dwell on the fact and
remember it, as something strange, when the same happens to a weak or
ignorant man. So too, though the latter should fail in his undertakings
from concurrences that might have happened to the wisest man, yet his
failure being no more than might have been expected and accounted for
from his folly, it lays no hold on our attention, but fleets away among
the other undistinguished waves in which the stream of ordinary life
murmurs by us, and is forgotten. Had it been as true as it was
notoriously false, that those all-embracing discoveries, which have shed
a dawn of _science_ on the _art_ of chemistry, and give no obscure
promise of some one great constitutive law, in the light of which dwell
dominion and the power of prophecy; if these discoveries, instead of
having been, as they really were, preconcerted by meditation, and
evolved out of his own intellect, had occurred by a set of lucky
_accidents_ to the illustrious father and founder of philosophic
alchemy; if they had presented themselves to Professor Davy exclusively
in consequence of his _luck_ in possessing a particular galvanic
battery; if this battery, as far as Davy was concerned, had itself been
an _accident_, and not (as in point of fact it was) desired and obtained
by him for the purpose of ensuring the testimony of experience to his
principles, and in order to bind down material nature under the
inquisition of reason, and force from her, as by torture, unequivocal
answers to _prepared_ and _preconceived_ questions,--yet still they
would not have been talked of or described as instances of _luck_, but
as the natural results of his admitted genius and known skill. But
should an accident have disclosed similar discoveries to a mechanic at
Birmingham or Sheffield, and if the man should grow rich in consequence,
and partly by the envy of his neighbours and partly with good reason, be