A System of Logic: Ratiocinative and Inductive, 7th Edition, Vol. II
John Stuart Mill · en
Now, if such a cause will exist to-morrow, or at any future time, some
cause, proximate or remote, of that cause must exist now, and must have
existed during the whole of the five thousand years. If, therefore, the
sun do not rise to-morrow, it will be because some cause has existed,
the effects of which though during five thousand years they have not
amounted to a perceptible quantity, will in one day become overwhelming.
Since this cause has not been recognised during such an interval of
time, by observers stationed on our earth, it must, if it exist, be
either some agent whose effects develop themselves gradually and very
slowly, or one which existed in regions beyond our observation, and is
now on the point of arriving in our part of the universe. Now all causes
which we have experience of, act according to laws incompatible with the
supposition that their effects, after accumulating so slowly as to be
imperceptible for five thousand years, should start into immensity in a
single day. No mathematical law of proportion between an effect and the
quantity or relations of its cause, could produce such contradictory
results. The sudden development of an effect of which there was no
previous trace, always arises from the coming together of several
distinct causes, not previously conjoined; but if such sudden
conjunction is destined to take place, the causes, or _their_ causes,
must have existed during the entire five thousand years; and their not
having once come together during that period, shows how rare that
particular combination is. We have, therefore, the warrant of a rigid
induction for considering it probable, in a degree undistinguishable
from certainty, that the known conditions requisite for the sun's rising
will exist to-morrow.