A System of Logic: Ratiocinative and Inductive, 7th Edition, Vol. II
John Stuart Mill · en
When, therefore, effects which are always found conjoined, can be traced
with any probability to an identical (and not merely a similar) origin,
we may with the same probability extend the empirical law of their
conjunction to all places within the extreme local boundaries within
which the fact has been observed; subject to the possibility of
counteracting causes in some portion of the field. Still more
confidently may we do so when the law is not merely empirical; when the
phenomena which we find conjoined are effects of ascertained causes,
from the laws of which the conjunction of their effects is deducible. In
that case, we may both extend the derivative uniformity over a larger
space, and with less abatement for the chance of counteracting causes.
The first, because instead of the local boundaries of our observation of
the fact itself, we may include the extreme boundaries of the
ascertained influence of its causes. Thus the succession of day and
night, we know, holds true of all the bodies of the solar system except
the sun itself; but we know this only because we are acquainted with the
causes: if we were not, we could not extend the proposition beyond the
orbits of the earth and moon, at both extremities of which we have the
evidence of observation for its truth. With respect to the probability
of counteracting causes, it has been seen that this calls for a greater
abatement of confidence, in proportion to our ignorance of the causes on
which the phenomena depend. On both accounts, therefore, a derivative
law which we know how to resolve, is susceptible of a greater extension
to cases adjacent in place, than a merely empirical law.
CHAPTER XX.
OF ANALOGY.