A System of Logic, Ratiocinative and Inductive (Vol. 1 of 2) — John Stuart Mill — John Shaqi
A System of Logic, Ratiocinative and Inductive (Vol. 1 of 2)
John Stuart Mill · en
Again, there are cases in which we reckon with the most unfailing
confidence upon uniformity, and other cases in which we do not count upon
it at all. In some we feel complete assurance that the future will
resemble the past, the unknown be precisely similar to the known. In
others, however invariable may be the result obtained from the instances
which have been observed, we draw from them no more than a very feeble
presumption that the like result will hold in all other cases. That a
straight line is the shortest distance between two points, we do not doubt
to be true even in the region of the fixed stars. When a chemist announces
the existence and properties of a newly-discovered substance, if we
confide in his accuracy, we feel assured that the conclusions he has
arrived at will hold universally, although the induction be founded but on
a single instance. We do not withhold our assent, waiting for a repetition
of the experiment; or if we do, it is from a doubt whether the one
experiment was properly made, not whether if properly made it would be
conclusive. Here, then, is a general law of nature, inferred without
hesitation from a single instance; an universal proposition from a
singular one. Now mark another case, and contrast it with this. Not all
the instances which have been observed since the beginning of the world,
in support of the general proposition that all crows are black, would be
deemed a sufficient presumption of the truth of the proposition, to
outweigh the testimony of one unexceptionable witness who should affirm
that in some region of the earth not fully explored, he had caught and
examined a crow, and had found it to be grey.
Why is a single instance, in some cases, sufficient for a complete
induction, while in others, myriads of concurring instances, without a
single exception known or presumed, go such a very little way towards
establishing an universal proposition? Whoever can answer this question
knows more of the philosophy of logic than the wisest of the ancients, and
has solved the problem of induction.
CHAPTER IV. OF LAWS OF NATURE.