A System of Logic, Ratiocinative and Inductive (Vol. 1 of 2)
John Stuart Mill · en
On the other hand, if an induction conflicts with stronger inductions, or
with conclusions capable of being correctly deduced from them, then,
unless on re-consideration it should appear that some of the stronger
inductions have been expressed with greater universality than their
evidence warrants, the weaker one must give way. The opinion so long
prevalent that a comet, or any other unusual appearance in the heavenly
regions, was the precursor of calamities to mankind, or to those at least
who witnessed it; the belief in the veracity of the oracles of Delphi or
Dodona; the reliance on astrology, or on the weather-prophecies in
almanacs; were doubtless inductions supposed to be grounded on
experience:(64) and faith in such delusions seems quite capable of holding
out against a great multitude of failures, provided it be nourished by a
reasonable number of casual coincidences between the prediction and the
event. What has really put an end to these insufficient inductions, is
their inconsistency with the stronger inductions subsequently obtained by
scientific inquiry, respecting the causes on which terrestrial events
really depend; and where those scientific truths have not yet penetrated,
the same or similar delusions still prevail.
It may be affirmed as a general principle, that all inductions, whether
strong or weak, which can be connected by a ratiocination, are
confirmatory of one another: while any which lead deductively to
consequences that are incompatible, become mutually each other’s test,
showing that one or other must be given up, or at least, more guardedly
expressed. In the case of inductions which confirm each other, the one
which becomes a conclusion from ratiocination rises to at least the level
of certainty of the weakest of those from which it is deduced; while in
general all are more or less increased in certainty. Thus the Torricellian
experiment, though a mere case of three more general laws, not only
strengthened greatly the evidence on which those laws rested, but
converted one of them (the weight of the atmosphere) from a doubtful
generalization into one of the best-established doctrines in the range of
physical science.
If, then, a survey of the uniformities which have been ascertained to
exist in nature, should point out some which, as far as any human purpose
requires certainty, may be considered as quite certain and quite
universal; then by means of these uniformities, we may be able to raise
multitudes of other inductions to the same point in the scale. For if we
can show, with respect to any induction, that either it must be true, or
one of these certain and universal inductions must admit of an exception;
the former generalization will attain the same certainty, and
indefeasibleness within the bounds assigned to it, which are the
attributes of the latter. It will be proved to be a law; and if not a
result of other and simpler laws, it will be a law of nature.