A Brief History of Panics and Their Periodical Occurrence in the United StatesJuglar, Clément
History
A Brief History of Panics and Their Periodical Occurrence in the United States
Juglar, Clément
Depressions
General business marked time while statesmen or pseudo-statesmen planned
and promised panaceas. President Taft joined that populous group. The
securities market, that barometer of business, fell beneath such
assurance of further unsettlement. How can you continue to trade unless
reasonably sure that conditions will remain fairly constant! All this
militated against a normally quick recovery from a great panic. Little
scares were frequently experienced. Influences matured and presented one
great political party split into two great factions, while the other
chief party endured something of the same development.
A conservative handling of National policies, or a radical one was the
question in each case. The November elections indicated a popular revolt
against the party in power--the Republican. Unshaken, President Taft
followed his convictions and in his Presidential message, of December,
1910, to Congress called for a halt in legislating to regulate
corporations, until the effect of the laws on the statute books could be
studied. The stock, money, and industrial markets were marking time. Not
to go forward in business or elsewhere is in itself to retrograde. Thus
opened the year 1911. Under the influence of easy money, better business
on some of the western railroads, better dividend declarations here and
there, a rosy "prediction as to the early future of the iron market, and
the belief that the Interstate Commerce Commission would grant better
rates to the railroads, general business felt encouraged and prices
advanced somewhat. But in February the Interstate Commerce Commission
forbade the railroads any increase whatever in rates. The roads were
obliged to institute many cramping economies which to them very often
meant the using up of their corpus and to the business world of the
United States a permeating retrogressive influence. Reductions in
railroad dividends were symptomatic of that. To add to all this there
developed additional business unrest predicated in the general tariff
change favored by the House of Representatives in April.
The United States Supreme Court decision interpreting the Sherman
Anti-Trust Law of 1890 as affecting the Standard Oil Company case and
the American Tobacco Company case were delivered late in May and were
unexpectedly reassuring to business. This was another evidence that the
best thought of the Nation everywhere was seeking to rectify the
looseness of the past without killing business initiative and continued
endeavor. So matters see-sawed in the business world. It was indeed in a
state of unstable equilibrum. Stocks declined now abruptly; then, after
some slight recovery, gently; but the slant was decidedly downward.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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