A Hundred Years Hence: The Expectations of an OptimistRussell, T. Baron
Philosophy
A Hundred Years Hence: The Expectations of an Optimist
Russell, T. Baron
Forecasting; Twentieth century -- Forecasts
a means of transmitting force already perceived as force in some
other form (as where a dynamo-electric machine receives motion from
a steam-engine or waterfall and turns this motion into electricity,
which is conveyed by wires or rails to an electric dynamic engine
that reconverts it into motion) and its use as a primary means of
utilising the cosmic stores of force.
Before we arrive, therefore, at the point of using electricity as
a source of power in itself, our mechanicians will have plenty to
occupy them in the task of devising safer and more convenient methods
of transmitting force, and even at the end of the century, supposing
the use of electricity not to have been entirely superseded by the
discovery of some entirely new force as yet not even conceivable,
invention will doubtless be still busy with further improvements in
the transmission as well as in the production of electricity. It has
been hinted that "wireless" transmission of power will no doubt by
that time have become practicable, and Signor Marconi's achievement
of wireless telegraphy was mentioned as a proof that such transmission
is at least imaginable. In Marconi's invention an enormous electrical
impulse is launched into the æther, and if the very smallest token
of it can be "picked up" in any way at the receiving station, the
wireless telegram is satisfactorily received. But the important fact
for our present purpose is that some product of the original impulse
can be picked up: and though the effort of imagination required to
see in this a starting-point for entirely new inventions, capable
of gathering up a practicable modicum of the transmitted power in
a form capable of being converted into motion, is severe, we shall
bring but a poor imaginative equipment to a task so colossal as that
of guessing what the next century will be capable of if we refuse to
believe that something in the nature of Hertzian waves, or something
propagated as these are propagated, can be used to carry impulse to
machinery at a distance from the source of power. The imaginative
faculty which boggles at this effort will probably overlook the fact
that the mere transmission is only a part of the difficulty which
is pretty sure to have been overcome by this time next century. It
will not be enough to launch waves capable of being used where they
are intended to be used. We must also discover how to launch them
so that they may be incapable of being used anywhere else. I read
the other day the report of a police-court case in which a man was
charged with "stealing electricity" (which seems a rather doubtful
indictment from the point of view of the lawyer) by obtaining the
use of a public telephone station without paying the usual fee. The
electricians of a hundred years hence will certainly have to find
out how to prevent the purloining of wireless force, and perhaps the
police will have to devise means of detecting this at present somewhat
recondite crime.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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