A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
If the persons assured should give to the assurance company only the sum
indicated by the calculus of probabilities, this company would not be
able to provide for the expenses of its institution; it is necessary
then that they should pay a sum much greater than the cost of such
insurance. What then is their advantage? It is here that the
consideration of the moral disadvantage attached to an uncertainty
becomes necessary. One conceives that the fairest game becomes, as has
already been seen, disadvantageous, because the player exchanges a
certain stake for an uncertain benefit; assurance by which one exchanges
the uncertain for the certain ought to be advantageous. It is indeed
this which results from the rule which we have given above for
determining moral hope and by which one sees moreover how far the
sacrifice may extend which ought to be made to the assurance company by
reserving always a moral advantage. This company can then in procuring
this advantage itself make a great benefit, if the number of the assured
persons is very large, a condition necessary to its continued existence.
Then its benefits become certain and the mathematical and moral hopes
coincide; for analysis leads to this general theorem, namely, that if
the expectations are very numerous the two hopes approach each other
without ceasing and end by coinciding in the case of an infinite number.
We have said in speaking of mathematical and moral hopes that there is a
moral advantage in distributing the risks of a benefit which one expects
over several of its parts. Thus in order to send a sum of money to a
distant part it is much better to send it on several vessels than to
expose it on one. This one does by means of mutual assurances. If two
persons, each having the same sum upon two different vessels which have
sailed from the same port to the same destination, agree to divide
equally all the money which may arrive, it is clear that by this
agreement each of them divides equally between the two vessels the sum
which he expects. Indeed this kind of assurance always leaves
uncertainty as to the loss which one may fear. But this uncertainty
diminishes in proportion as the number of policy-holders increases; the
moral advantage increases more and more and ends by coinciding with the
mathematical advantage, its natural limit. This renders the association
of mutual assurances when it is very numerous more advantageous to the
assured ones than the companies of assurance which, in proportion to the
benefit that they give, give a moral advantage always inferior to the
mathematical advantage. But the surveillance of their administration can
balance the advantage of the mutual assurances. All these results are,
as has already been seen, independent of the law which expresses the
moral advantage.
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