A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
We judge by induction that if various events, movements, for example,
appear constantly and have been long connected by a simple ratio, they
will continue to be subjected to it; and we conclude from this, by the
theory of probabilities, that this ratio is due, not to hazard, but to a
regular cause. Thus the equality of the movements of the rotation and
the revolution of the moon; that of the movements of the nodes of the
orbit and of the lunar equator, and the coincidence of these nodes; the
singular ratio of the movements of the first three satellites of
Jupiter, according to which the mean longitude of the first satellite,
less three times that of the second, plus two times that of the third,
is equal to two right angles; the equality of the interval of the tides
to that of the passage of the moon to the meridian; the return of the
greatest tides with the syzygies, and of the smallest with the
quadratures; all these things, which have been maintained since they
were first observed, indicate with an extreme probability, the existence
of constant causes which geometricians have happily succeeded in
attaching to the law of universal gravity, and the knowledge of which
renders certain the perpetuity of these ratios.
The chancellor Bacon, the eloquent promoter of the true philosophical
method, has made a very strange misuse of induction in order to prove
the immobility of the earth. He reasons thus in the _Novum Organum_, his
finest work: "The movement of the stars from the orient to the occident
increases in swiftness, in proportion to their distance from the earth.
This movement is swiftest with the stars; it slackens a little with
Saturn, a little more with Jupiter, and so on to the moon and the
highest comets. It is still perceptible in the atmosphere, especially
between the tropics, on account of the great circles which the molecules
of the air describe there; finally, it is almost inappreciable with the
ocean; it is then nil for the earth." But this induction proves only
that Saturn, and the stars which are inferior to it, have their own
movements, contrary to the real or apparent movement which sweeps the
whole celestial sphere from the orient to the occident, and that these
movements appear slower with the more remote stars, which is conformable
to the laws of optics. Bacon ought to have been struck by the
inconceivable swiftness which the stars require in order to accomplish
their diurnal revolution, if the earth is immovable, and by the extreme
simplicity with which its rotation explains how bodies so distant, the
ones from the others, as the stars, the sun, the planets, and the moon,
all seem subjected to this revolution. As to the ocean and to the
atmosphere, he ought not to compare their movement with that of the
stars which are detached from the earth; but since the air and the sea
make part of the terrestrial globe, they ought to participate in its
movement or in its repose. It is singular that Bacon, carried to great
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