A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
prospects by his genius, was not won over by the majestic idea which the
Copernican system of the universe offers. He was able, however, to find
in favor of that system, strong analogies in the discoveries of Galileo,
which were continued by him. He has given for the search after truth the
precept, but not the example. But by insisting, with all the force of
reason and of eloquence, upon the necessity of abandoning the
insignificant subtleties of the school, in order to apply oneself to
observations and to experiences, and by indicating the true method of
ascending to the general causes of phenomena, this great philosopher
contributed to the immense strides which the human mind made in the
grand century in which he terminated his career.
Analogy is based upon the probability, that similar things have causes
of the same kind and produce the same effects. This probability increase
as the similitude becomes more perfect. Thus we judge without doubt that
beings provided with the same organs, doing the same things, experience
the same sensations, and are moved by the same desires. The probability
that the animals which resemble us have sensations analogous to ours,
although a little inferior to that which is relative to individuals of
our species, is still exceedingly great; and it has required all the
influence of religious prejudices to make us think with some
philosophers that animals are mere automatons. The probability of the
existence of feeling decreases in the same proportion as the similitude
of the organs with ours diminishes, but it is always very great, even
with insects. In seeing those of the same species execute very
complicated things exactly in the same manner from generation to
generation, and without having learned them, one is led to believe that
they act by a kind of affinity analogous to that which brings together
the molecules of crystals, but which, together with the sensation
attached to all animal organization, produces, with the regularity of
chemical combinations, combinations that are much more singular; one
might, perhaps, name this mingling of elective affinities and sensations
_animal affinity_. Although there exists a great analogy between the
organization of plants and that of animals, it does not seem to me
sufficient to extend to vegetables the sense of feeling; but nothing
authorizes us in denying it to them.
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