A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
However, we have only an imperfect knowledge of the results obtained, as
long as the law of the errors of which they are susceptible is unknown;
we must be able to assign the probability that these errors are
contained within given limits, which amounts to determining that which I
have called the _weight_ of a result. Analysis leads to general and
simple formulæ for this purpose. I have applied this analysis to the
results of geodetic observations. The general problem consists in
determining the probabilities that the values of one or of several
linear functions of the errors of a very great number of observations
are contained within any limits.
The law of the possibility of the errors of observations introduces into
the expressions of these probabilities a constant, whose value seems to
require the knowledge of this law, which is almost always unknown.
Happily this constant can be determined from the observations.
In the investigation of astronomical elements it is given by the sum of
the squares of the differences between each observation and the
calculated one. The errors equally probable being proportional to the
square root of this sum, one can, by the comparison of these squares,
appreciate the relative exactitude of the different tables of the same
star. In geodetic operations these squares are replaced by the squares
of the errors of the sums observed of the three angles of each triangle.
The comparison of the squares of these errors will enable us to judge of
the relative precision of the instruments with which the angles have
been measured. By this comparison is seen the advantage of the repeating
circle over the instruments which it has replaced in geodesy.
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