A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
There often exists in the observations many sources of errors: thus the
positions of the stars being determined by means of the meridian
telescope and of the circle, both susceptible of errors whose law of
probability ought not to be supposed the same, the elements that are
deduced from these positions are affected by these errors. The equations
of condition, which are made to obtain these elements, contain the
errors of each instrument and they have various coefficients. The most
advantageous system of factors by which these equations ought to be
multiplied respectively, in order to obtain, by the union of the
products, as many final equations as there are elements to be
determined, is no longer that of the coefficients of the elements in
each equation of condition. The analysis which I have used leads easily,
whatever the number of the sources of error may be, to the system of
factors which gives the most advantageous results, or those in which the
same error is less probable than in any other system. The same analysis
determines the laws of probability of the errors of these results. These
formulæ contain as many unknown constants as there are sources of error,
and they depend upon the laws of probability of these errors. It has
been seen that, in the case of a single source, this constant can be
determined by forming the sum of the squares of the residuals of each
equation of condition, when the values found for these elements have
been substituted. A similar process generally gives values of these
constants, whatever their number may be, which completes the application
of the calculus of probabilities to the results of observations.
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