A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
Suppose in an urn _a_ white balls, _b_ black balls, and after having
drawn a ball it is put back into the urn; the probability is asked that
in _n_ number of draws _m_ white balls and _n_ - _m_ black balls will be
drawn. It is clear that the number of cases that may occur at each
drawing is _a_ + _b_. Each case of the second drawing being able to
combine with all the cases of the first, the number of possible cases in
two drawings is the square of the binomial _a_ + _b_. In the development
of this square, the square of a expresses the number of cases in which a
white ball is twice drawn, the double product of _a_ by _b_ expresses
the number of cases in which a white ball and a black ball are drawn.
Finally, the square of _b_ expresses the number of cases in which two
black balls are drawn. Continuing thus, we see generally that the _n_th
power of the binomial _a_ + _b_ expresses the number of all the cases
possible in _n_ draws; and that in the development of this power the
term multiplied by the _m_th power of _a_ expresses the number of cases
in which _m_ white balls and _n_ - _m_ black balls may be drawn.
Dividing then this term by the entire power of the binomial, we shall
have the probability of drawing _m_ white balls and _n_ - _m_ black
balls. The ratio of the numbers _a_ and _a_ + _b_ being the probability
of drawing one white ball at one draw; and the ratio of the numbers _b_
and _a_ + _b_ being the probability of drawing one black ball; if we
call these probabilities _p_ and _q_, the probability of drawing _m_
white balls in _n_ draws will be the term multiplied by the _m_th power
of _p_ in the development of the _n_th power of the binomial _p_ + _q_;
we may see that the sum _p_ + _q_ is unity. This remarkable property of
the binomial is very useful in the theory of probabilities. But the most
general and direct method of resolving questions of probability consists
in making them depend upon equations of differences. Comparing the
successive conditions of the function which expresses the probability
when we increase the variables by their respective differences, the
proposed question often furnishes a very simple proportion between the
conditions. This proportion is what is called _equation of ordinary or
partial differentials_; _ordinary_ when there is only one variable,
_partial_ when there are several. Let us consider some examples of this.
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