A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities — John Shaqi
A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
Three players of supposed equal ability play together on the following
conditions: that one of the first two players who beats his adversary
plays the third, and if he beats him the game is finished. If he is
beaten, the victor plays against the second until one of the players has
defeated consecutively the two others, which ends the game. The
probability is demanded that the game will be finished in a certain
number _n_ of plays. Let us find the probability that it will end
precisely at the _n_th play. For that the player who wins ought to enter
the game at the play _n_ - 1 and win it thus at the following play. But
if in place of winning the play _n_ - 1 he should be beaten by his
adversary who had just beaten the other player, the game would end at
this play. Thus the probability that one of the players will enter the
game at the play _n_ - 1 and will win it is equal to the probability
that the game will end precisely with this play; and as this player
ought to win the following play in order that the game may be finished
at the _n_th play, the probability of this last case will be only one
half of the preceding one. This probability is evidently a function of
the number _n_; this function is then equal to the half of the same
function when _n_ is diminished by unity. This equality forms one of
those equations called _ordinary finite differential equations_.
We may easily determine by its use the probability that the game will
end precisely at a certain play. It is evident that the play cannot end
sooner than at the second play; and for this it is necessary that that
one of the first two players who has beaten his adversary should beat at
the second play the third player; the probability that the game will end
at this play is ½. Hence by virtue of the preceding equation we conclude
that the successive probabilities of the end of the game are ¼ for the
third play, ⅛ for the fourth play, and so on; and in general ½ raised to
the power _n_ - 1 for the _n_th play. The sum of all these powers of ½
is unity less the last of these powers; it is the probability that the
game will end at the latest in _n_ plays.
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