A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
We are often led to expressions which contain so many terms and factors
that the numerical substitutions are impracticable. This takes place in
questions of probability when we consider a great number of events.
Meanwhile it is necessary to have the numerical value of the formulæ in
order to know with what probability the results are indicated, which the
events develop by multiplication. It is necessary especially to have the
law according to which this probability continually approaches
certainty, which it will finally attain if the number of events were
infinite. In order to obtain this law I considered that the definite
integrals of differentials multiplied by the factors raised to great
powers would give by integration the formulæ composed of a great number
of terms and factors. This remark brought me to the idea of transforming
into similar integrals the complicated expressions of analysis and the
integrals of the equation of differences. I fulfilled this condition by
a method which gives at the same time the function comprised under the
integral sign and the limits of the integration. It offers this
remarkable thing, that the function is the same discriminant function of
the expressions and the proposed equations; this attaches this method to
the theory of discriminant functions of which it is thus the complement.
Further, it would only be a question of reducing the definite integral
to a converging series. This I have obtained by a process which makes
the series converge with as much more rapidity as the formula which it
represents is more complicated, so that it is more exact as it becomes
more necessary. Frequently the series has for a factor the square root
of the ratio of the circumference to the diameter; sometimes it depends
upon other transcendents whose number is infinite.
An important remark which pertains to great generality of analysis, and
which permits us to extend this method to formulæ and to equations of
difference which the theory of probability presents most frequently, is
that the series to which one comes by supposing the limits of the
definite integrals to be real and positive take place equally in the
case where the equation which determines these limits has only negative
or imaginary roots. These passages from the positive to the negative and
from the real to the imaginary, of which I first have made use, have led
me further to the values of many singular definite integrals, which I
have accordingly demonstrated directly. We may then consider these
passages as a means of discovery parallel to induction and analogy long
employed by geometricians, at first with an extreme reserve, afterwards
with entire confidence, since a great number of examples has justified
its use. In the mean time it is always necessary to confirm by direct
demonstrations the results obtained by these divers means.
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