A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
I have named the ensemble of the preceding methods the _Calculus of
Discriminant Functions_; this calculus serves as a basis for the work
which I have published under the title of the _Analytical Theory of
Probabilities_. It is connected with the simple idea of indicating the
repeated multiplications of a quantity by itself or its entire and
positive powers by writing toward the top of the letter which expresses
it the numbers which mark the degrees of these powers.
This notation, employed by Descartes in his _Geometry_ and generally
adopted since the publication of this important work, is a little thing,
especially when compared with the theory of curves and variable
functions by which this great geometrician has established the
foundations of modern calculus. But the language of analysis, most
perfect of all, being in itself a powerful instrument of discoveries,
its notations, especially when they are necessary and happily conceived,
are so many germs of new calculi. This is rendered appreciable by this
example.
Wallis, who in his work entitled _Arithmetica Infinitorum_, one of those
which have most contributed to the progress of analysis, has interested
himself especially in following the thread of induction and analogy,
considered that if one divides the exponent of a letter by two, three,
etc., the quotient will be accordingly the Cartesian notation, and when
division is possible the exponent of the square, cube, etc., root of the
quantity which represents the letter raised to the dividend exponent.
Extending by analogy this result to the case where division is
impossible, he considered a quantity raised to a fractional exponent as
the root of the degree indicated by the denominator of this
fraction—namely, of the quantity raised to a power indicated by the
numerator. He observed then that, according to the Cartesian notation,
the multiplication of two powers of the same letter amounts to adding
their exponents, and that their division amounts to subtracting the
exponents of the power of the divisor from that of the power of the
dividend, when the second of these exponents is greater than the first.
Wallis extended this result to the case where the first exponent is
equal to or greater than the second, which makes the difference zero or
negative. He supposed then that a negative exponent indicates unity
divided by the quantity raised to the same exponent taken positively.
These remarks led him to integrate generally the monomial differentials,
whence he inferred the definite integrals of a particular kind of
binomial differentials whose exponent is a positive integral number. The
observation then of the law of the numbers which express these
integrals, a series of interpolations and happy inductions where one
perceives the germ of the calculus of definite integrals which has so
much exercised geometricians and which is one of the fundaments of my
new _Theory of Probabilities_, gave him the ratio of the area of the
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